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Simultaneity of Crime Incidence in Mindanao

Author

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  • Madanlo, Lalaine
  • Murcia, John Vianne
  • Tamayo, Adrian

Abstract

The study simulated the predictive relationships of regional monthly crime rates for a period covering January 2009 to July 2013. A six-equation model representing the six regions in Mindanao was estimated using the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The SUR estimation shows that the increase of incidences of crimes in Southern Mindanao Region and SOCCSKSARGEN tended a 1.73% rise and 0.85% reduction in crime incidences in Zamboanga Peninsula. Monthly crime rates in Northern Mindanao increases crime rates in Southern Mindanao (1.1%), SOCCSKSARGEN (1.29%), CARAGA (0.22%) and ARMM (0.96%). Southern Mindanao yielded simultaneous increase in crimes with Zamboanga Peninsula (0.21%) and Northern Mindanao (0.36%); yet a drop in crimes in CARAGA (0.08%) and ARMM (0.29%). SOCCSKSARGEN's crime rates rise simultaneously by 0.39% in every percentage increase of crime rates in Northern Mindanao yet plunged by about 0.09% and 0.50% when crimes rise by a notch higher in Zamboanga Peninsula and ARMM. CARAGA posted 0.97% increase and 1.07% decrease of crime rates upon the rise of crime rates Northern Mindanao and Southern Mindanao. Lastly, crime rates in ARMM, on the other hand, tend to increase by 0.63% upon the rise of the same in Northern Mindanao and dipped by 0.58% and 1.09% in simultaneity with Southern Mindanao and SOCCSKSARGEN.

Suggested Citation

  • Madanlo, Lalaine & Murcia, John Vianne & Tamayo, Adrian, 2016. "Simultaneity of Crime Incidence in Mindanao," MPRA Paper 72648, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jul 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72648
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tamayo, Adrian, 2016. "Determining Statistical Pattern on the Drug-Related Killing in Philippines Using ARIMA and Poisson Techniques," MPRA Paper 72518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    4. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2009. "Stationarity of time series and the problem of spurious regression," MPRA Paper 27926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Spanos, Aris, 1990. "The simultaneous-equations model revisited : Statistical adequacy and identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 87-105.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    panel data; regional crime rates; Mindanao; seemingly unrelated regression; simultaneous effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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