IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/71614.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Yagi, Michiyuki
  • Managi, Shunsuke

Abstract

This study empirically examines the demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan between 1980 and 2009. Unique car cohort data, composed of the car age and 11 car types, at the prefectural level, is analyzed. The primary reason for examining the demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan is because Japan is projected to face radical demographic changes in the next few decades. These projected changes include depopulation and an aging population with diminishing household size. This study will be the first empirical study of the car cohort model with large countrywide observations in the recent literature. This study classifies the demographic determinants into five categories: (I) longitudinal factors, (II) economic factors, (III) natural factors, (IV) social factors, and (V) other transports. Although some tendencies vary among car types, this study finds the following tendencies of ordinary car ownership (compact four-wheel drive trucks and regular and compact passenger cars). Regarding the longitudinal factors, the long-run effect is much higher than average in the recent literature, whereas the semi elasticity of car age is approximately −7%. Regarding the economic factors, the elasticities of income and fuel price on car ownership tend to be less intense than in earlier studies. Regarding the natural factors of population increase, the elasticities of population and average household size on car ownership tend to be negative. This indicates that a decrease in population and household size in Japan will accelerate car ownership. In addition, the ratio of elderly people has various effects depending on car types. Regarding the social factors of population increase, car ownership tends to be encouraged by the concentration of population within prefecture, and increased and decreased for relatively new (aged 2-11) and old (aged 12+) cars, respectively, by the concentration of population across prefectures. The former is probably due to a composite effect in urban and rural areas, whereas the latter may be a quick update cycle due to an effect of urbanization. Regarding other transports, the degrees of train and bus use tend to be negatively associated with ordinary car ownership. However, these effects are considerably small and often insignificant as in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Yagi, Michiyuki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan," MPRA Paper 71614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71614
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71614/1/MPRA_paper_71614.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Whelan, Gerard, 2007. "Modelling car ownership in Great Britain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 205-219, March.
    2. Matas, Anna & Raymond, Josep-LLuis, 2008. "Changes in the structure of car ownership in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 187-202, January.
    3. Ritter, Nolan & Vance, Colin, 2013. "Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-85.
    4. Dargay, Joyce M., 2002. "Determinants of car ownership in rural and urban areas: a pseudo-panel analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 351-366, September.
    5. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 441-473, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Pengjun & Bai, Yu, 2019. "The gap between and determinants of growth in car ownership in urban and rural areas of China: A longitudinal data case study," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Ha, Tran Vinh & Asada, Takumi & Arimura, Mikiharu, 2019. "Determination of the influence factors on household vehicle ownership patterns in Phnom Penh using statistical and machine learning methods," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 70-86.
    3. Blumenberg, Evelyn & Schouten, Andrew & Brown, Anne, 2022. "Who’s in the driver’s seat? Gender and the division of car use in auto-deficit households," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 14-26.
    4. Timo Liljamo & Heikki Liimatainen & Markus Pöllänen & Riku Viri, 2021. "The Effects of Mobility as a Service and Autonomous Vehicles on People’s Willingness to Own a Car in the Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-28, February.
    5. Frances Ifeoma Ukonze & Maxwell Umunna Nwachukwu & Harold Chike Mba & Donald Chiuba Okeke & Uloma Jiburum, 2020. "Determinants of Vehicle Ownership in Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    6. Karol Tucki & Olga Orynycz & Mateusz Mitoraj-Wojtanek, 2020. "Perspectives for Mitigation of CO 2 Emission due to Development of Electromobility in Several Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-24, August.
    7. Soltani, Ali, 2017. "Social and urban form determinants of vehicle ownership; evidence from a developing country," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 90-100.
    8. Rešetar, Marko & Pejić, Goran & Lulić, Zoran, 2018. "Changes and trends in the Croatian road vehicle fleet – Need for change of policy measures," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 92-105.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2016. "Analysis of vehicle ownership evolution in Montreal, Canada using pseudo panel analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 531-548, May.
    2. repec:zbw:rwirep:0385 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. John Eakins, 2013. "The Determinants of Household Car Ownership: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Household Budget Survey," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 144, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    4. Matas, Anna & Raymond, José-Luis & Roig, José-Luis, 2009. "Car ownership and access to jobs in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 607-617, July.
    5. Ritter, Nolan & Vance, Colin, 2013. "Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 50, pages 74-85.
    6. Prieto, Marc & Baltas, George & Stan, Valentina, 2017. "Car sharing adoption intention in urban areas: What are the key sociodemographic drivers?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 218-227.
    7. Ha, Tran Vinh & Asada, Takumi & Arimura, Mikiharu, 2019. "Determination of the influence factors on household vehicle ownership patterns in Phnom Penh using statistical and machine learning methods," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 70-86.
    8. Sabreena Anowar & Shamsunnahar Yasmin & Naveen Eluru & Luis Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Analyzing car ownership in Quebec City: a comparison of traditional and latent class ordered and unordered models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 1013-1039, September.
    9. Bindong Sun & Tinglin Zhang & Zhou He & Rui Wang, 2017. "Urban Spatial Structure And Motorization In China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 470-486, June.
    10. Juan Laborda & María José Moral, 2020. "Automotive Aftermarket Forecast in a Changing World: The Stakeholders’ Perceptions Boost!," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-22, September.
    11. Jou, Rong-Chang & Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Wu, Yuan-Chan & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The asymmetric income effect on household vehicle ownership in Taiwan: A threshold cointegration approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 696-706.
    12. Frances Ifeoma Ukonze & Maxwell Umunna Nwachukwu & Harold Chike Mba & Donald Chiuba Okeke & Uloma Jiburum, 2020. "Determinants of Vehicle Ownership in Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    13. Nolan Ritter & Colin Vance, 2012. "Do Fewer People Mean Fewer Cars? – Population Decline and Car Ownership in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0385, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 441-473, July.
    15. Yang, Hongtai & Zhai, Guocong & Liu, Xiaohan & Yang, Linchuan & Liu, Yugang & Yuan, Quan, 2022. "Determinants of city-level private car ownership: Effect of vehicle regulation policies and the relative price," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 40-48.
    16. Van Acker, Veronique & Witlox, Frank, 2010. "Car ownership as a mediating variable in car travel behaviour research using a structural equation modelling approach to identify its dual relationship," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 65-74.
    17. Galarraga, Ibon & Kallbekken, Steffen & Silvestri, Alessandro, 2020. "Consumer purchases of energy-efficient cars: How different labelling schemes could affect consumer response to price changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Soltani, Ali, 2017. "Social and urban form determinants of vehicle ownership; evidence from a developing country," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 90-100.
    19. Quaglione, Davide & Cassetta, Ernesto & Crociata, Alessandro & Marra, Alessandro & Sarra, Alessandro, 2019. "An assessment of the role of cultural capital on sustainable mobility behaviours: Conceptual framework and empirical evidence," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 24-34.
    20. Choudhary, Ravi & Vasudevan, Vinod, 2017. "Study of vehicle ownership for urban and rural households in India," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 52-58.
    21. Matas, Anna & Raymond, Josep-LLuis, 2008. "Changes in the structure of car ownership in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 187-202, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    car cohort; demographic determinants; car ownership in Japan; car aggregated model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71614. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.