Do Fewer People Mean Fewer Cars? – Population Decline and Car Ownership in Germany
Drawing on household data from Germany, this study econometrically analyzes the determinants of automobile ownership, focusing specifically on the extent to which decreases in family size translate into fewer cars at the national level. Beyond identifying several variables over which policy makers have direct leverage, including the price for fuel, the supply of public transit, and land use features, the analysis uses the estimated coefficients from a multinomial logit model to simulate car ownership rates under alternative scenarios pertaining to demographic change and other socioeconomic variables. Our baseline scenario predicts continued increases in the number of cars despite decreases in population, a trend that could be partially offset by substantial increases in fuel prices.
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- Prettenthaler, Franz E. & Steininger, Karl W., 1999. "From ownership to service use lifestyle: the potential of car sharing," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 443-453, March.
- Bhat, Chandra R. & Pulugurta, Vamsi, 1998. "A comparison of two alternative behavioral choice mechanisms for household auto ownership decisions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-75, January.
- Simon Cheng & J. Scott Long, 2007. "Testing for IIA in the Multinomial Logit Model," Sociological Methods & Research, SAGE Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 583-600, May.
- Steven Raphael & Lorien Rice, 2000.
"Car Ownership, Employment, and Earnings,"
JCPR Working Papers
179, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
- Whelan, Gerard, 2007. "Modelling car ownership in Great Britain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 205-219, March.
- Tomz, Michael & Wittenberg, Jason & King, Gary, 2003. "Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 8(i01).
- Frondel, Manuel & Vance, Colin, 2008.
"Do High Oil Prices Matter? – Evidence on the Mobility Behavior of German Households,"
Ruhr Economic Papers
72, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Manuel Frondel & Colin Vance, 2009. "Do High Oil Prices Matter? Evidence on the Mobility Behavior of German Households," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 81-94, May.
- J. Scott Long & Jeremy Freese, 2006. "Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables using Stata, 2nd Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 2, number long2, September.
- Ryuichi Kitamura, 2009. "A dynamic model system of household car ownership, trip generation, and modal split: model development and simulation experiment," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(6), pages 711-732, November.
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