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Do Fewer People Mean Fewer Cars? – Population Decline and Car Ownership in Germany

  • Nolan Ritter

    ()

  • Colin Vance
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    Drawing on household data from Germany, this study econometrically analyzes the determinants of automobile ownership, focusing specifically on the extent to which decreases in family size translate into fewer cars at the national level. Beyond identifying several variables over which policy makers have direct leverage, including the price for fuel, the supply of public transit, and land use features, the analysis uses the estimated coefficients from a multinomial logit model to simulate car ownership rates under alternative scenarios pertaining to demographic change and other socioeconomic variables. Our baseline scenario predicts continued increases in the number of cars despite decreases in population, a trend that could be partially offset by substantial increases in fuel prices.

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    File URL: http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_12_385.pdf
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    Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0385.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0385
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    1. Whelan, Gerard, 2007. "Modelling car ownership in Great Britain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 205-219, March.
    2. Micahael Tomz & Jason Wittenberg & Gary King, . "Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(i01).
    3. Manuel Frondel & Colin Vance, 2008. "Do High Oil Prices Matter? – Evidence on the Mobility Behavior of German Households," Ruhr Economic Papers 0072, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Ryuichi Kitamura, 2009. "A dynamic model system of household car ownership, trip generation, and modal split: model development and simulation experiment," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(6), pages 711-732, November.
    5. Matas, Anna & Raymond, Josep-LLuis, 2008. "Changes in the structure of car ownership in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 187-202, January.
    6. Raphael, Steven & Rice, Lorien, 2002. "Car ownership, employment, and earnings," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 109-130, July.
    7. J. Scott Long & Jeremy Freese, 2006. "Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables using Stata, 2nd Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 2, number long2, November.
    8. Anna Matas & José-Luís Raymond & José-Luís Roig, 2008. "Car ownership and access to jobs in Spain," Working Papers XREAP2008-03, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Apr 2008.
    9. Prettenthaler, Franz E. & Steininger, Karl W., 1999. "From ownership to service use lifestyle: the potential of car sharing," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 443-453, March.
    10. Bhat, Chandra R. & Pulugurta, Vamsi, 1998. "A comparison of two alternative behavioral choice mechanisms for household auto ownership decisions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-75, January.
    11. Antonio M. Bento & Maureen L. Cropper & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Katja Vinha, 2005. "The Effects of Urban Spatial Structure on Travel Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 466-478, August.
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