IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/60155.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Bank Stocks Return and Volatility: Tale of a South Asian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain
  • Zakaria, Muhammad
  • Raza, Naveed
  • Ali, Sajid

Abstract

This paper examines Pakistani Banks stock return and volatility relationship with market, interest rate and foreign exchange rate. The study extensively applies different statistical approaches to model return and volatility relation. First, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) multiple regression model is applied for estimation of return relation. Further, Generalize Method of Movement (GMM) is applied to cater the endogeniety issue. Secondly, Due to presence of Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Weighted Least Square (WLS) and Generalize Auto Regression Conditional Heteroskedasticity - GARCH (1,1) estimation model is applied to estimate conditional return and volatility. Interest rate and foreign exchange rate have significant impact on unconditional and conditional bank stock returns under different model specifications. Market return is a determining factor in bank stock pricing. The results infer that bank volatility is significantly related with interest rate and foreign exchange rate risk. The volatility of bank stock returns is persistent with slower decay over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Zakaria, Muhammad & Raza, Naveed & Ali, Sajid, 2014. "On the Bank Stocks Return and Volatility: Tale of a South Asian Economy," MPRA Paper 60155, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60155
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60155/1/MPRA_paper_60155.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chkili, Walid & Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in dynamic volatility relationships between stock returns and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 738-757.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting volatility of foreign exchange markets of oil exporters: The importance of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 101-119.
    2. Manh Ha Nguyen & Olivier Darné, 2018. "Forecasting and risk management in the Vietnam Stock Exchange," Working Papers halshs-01679456, HAL.
    3. Chaker Aloui & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "On the detection of extreme movements and persistent behaviour in Mediterranean stock markets: a wavelet-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2611-2622, August.
    4. Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2013. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages among international currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 319-332.
    6. Alexey Yurievich Mikhaylov, 2018. "Volatility Spillover Effect between Stock and Exchange Rate in Oil Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 321-326.
    7. Saadati, Alireza & Honarmandi, Zahra & Zarei, Samira, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate Shocks and Export-Oriented Businesses in Iran: An Empirical Analysis Using NARDL Model," MPRA Paper 101554, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jun 2020.
    8. Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq & Park, Jin Suk, 2019. "The impact of trade intensity and Market characteristics on asymmetric volatility, spillovers and asymmetric spillovers: Evidence from the response of international stock markets to US shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 79-94.
    9. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hunter, John & Menla Ali, Faek, 2014. "On the linkages between stock prices and exchange rates: Evidence from the banking crisis of 2007–2010," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 87-103.
    10. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2016. "Stock markets and effective exchange rates in European countries: threshold cointegration findings," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 215-274, August.
    11. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 387-395.
    12. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Huang, Ying Sophie & Tang, Bo, 2018. "Does internationalisation increase exchange rate exposure? -Evidence from Chinese financial firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 253-263.
    13. Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2014. "Modeling international stock market contagion using multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-25, December.
    14. Shi, Yanlin & Feng, Lingbing, 2016. "A discussion on the innovation distribution of the Markov regime-switching GARCH model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 278-288.
    15. Zouheir Mighri, 2018. "On the Dynamic Linkages Among International Emerging Currencies," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 427-473, June.
    16. Lingbing Feng & Yanlin Shi, 2017. "A simulation study on the distributions of disturbances in the GARCH model," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1355503-135, January.
    17. Afees A. Salisu & Umar B. Ndako, 2017. "A new look at the stock price-exchange rate nexus," Working Papers 031, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    18. Onder Buberkoku, 2018. "Examining the Value-at-risk Performance of Fractionally Integrated GARCH Models: Evidence from Energy Commodities," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 36-50.
    19. Shi, Yanlin & Ho, Kin-Yip, 2015. "Modeling high-frequency volatility with three-state FIGARCH models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 473-483.
    20. Rania Jammazi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2015. "Responses of international stock markets to oil price surges: a regime-switching perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(41), pages 4408-4422, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank stock returns; Market rate; Interest rate; Foreign exchange rate; GARCH; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.