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Is Bitcoin business income or speculative bubble? Unconditional vs. conditional frequency domain analysis

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  • Bouoiyour, Jamal
  • Selmi, Refk
  • Tiwari, Aviral

Abstract

The present study addresses one of the most problematic phenomena: Bitcoin price. We explore the Granger causality for two relationships (Bitcoin price and transactions; Bitcoin price and investors’ attractiveness) from a frequency domain perspective using Breitung and Candelon’s (2006) approach. Intuitively, this research gauges empirically the causal links between these variables unconditionally on the one hand and conditionally to the Chinese stock market and the processing power of Bitcoin network on the other hand. The observed outcomes reveal some differences with respect to the frequencies involved, highlighting the complexity of assessing what Bitcoin looks like and the difficulty to gain clearer insights into this nascent crypto-currency. Beyond the nuances of short-, medium- and long-run frequencies, this paper confirms the extremely speculative nature of Bitcoin without neglecting its usefulness in economic reasons (trade transactions). The consideration of the Chinese market index and the hash rate has led to solid and unambiguous findings connecting further Bitcoin to speculation.

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  • Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral, 2014. "Is Bitcoin business income or speculative bubble? Unconditional vs. conditional frequency domain analysis," MPRA Paper 59595, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59595
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    Cited by:

    1. Boako, Gideon & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Vine copula-based dependence and portfolio value-at-risk analysis of the cryptocurrency market," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 77-90.
    2. Pavel Ciaian & Miroslava Rajcaniova & d’Artis Kancs, 2016. "The economics of BitCoin price formation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1799-1815, April.
    3. Bildirici, Melike E. & Sonustun, Bahri, 2021. "Chaotic behavior in gold, silver, copper and bitcoin prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Tao, Ran & Si, Deng-Kui, 2018. "Testing for multiple bubbles in bitcoin markets: A generalized sup ADF test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 56-63.
    5. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Olubusoye, Olusanya E., 2019. "How persistent and dynamic inter-dependent are pricing of Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies before and after 2017/18 crash?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 531(C).
    6. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Corbet, Shaen, 2020. "A systematic review of the bubble dynamics of cryptocurrency prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2016. "What drives Bitcoin price?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 843-850.
    8. Ciaian, Pavel & Rajcaniova, Miroslava & Kancs, d'Artis, 2018. "Virtual relationships: Short- and long-run evidence from BitCoin and altcoin markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 173-195.
    9. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2019. "Is the Bitcoin price dynamics economically reasonable? Evidence from fundamental laws," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    10. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2015. "What Determines Bitcoin’s Value?," Working Papers hal-01880330, HAL.
    11. repec:pra:mprapa:58133 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sofoklis Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou, 2019. "Bitcoin: The Road to Hell Is Paved With Good Promises," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(1), February.
    13. Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Eric, 2021. "Structural vector error correction modelling of Bitcoin price," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 170-178.
    14. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "What Bitcoin Looks Like?," MPRA Paper 58091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ziaul Haque Munim & Mohammad Hassan Shakil & Ilan Alon, 2019. "Next-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    16. Burcu Kapar & Jose Olmo, 2021. "Analysis of Bitcoin prices using market and sentiment variables," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 45-63, January.
    17. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "What Does Crypto-currency Look Like? Gaining Insight into Bitcoin Phenomenon," MPRA Paper 57907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Brandvold, Morten & Molnár, Peter & Vagstad, Kristian & Andreas Valstad, Ole Christian, 2015. "Price discovery on Bitcoin exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 18-35.
    19. Stavros Stavroyiannis, 2017. "Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the major digital currencies," Papers 1708.09343, arXiv.org.
    20. Brauneis, Alexander & Mestel, Roland, 2019. "Cryptocurrency-portfolios in a mean-variance framework," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 259-264.
    21. Pradipta Kumar SAHOO, 2017. "Bitcoin as digital money: Its growth and future sustainability," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(613), W), pages 53-64, Winter.
    22. Zheng-Zheng Li & Ran Tao & Chi-Wei Su & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2019. "Does Bitcoin bubble burst?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 91-105, January.
    23. Zvonko Merkaš & Vlasta Roška, 2021. "The Impact of Unsystematic Factors on Bitcoin Value," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, November.
    24. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2015. "What Determines Bitcoin’s Value?," Working Papers hal-01880330, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin price; transactions; investors’ attractiveness; unconditional frequency domain; conditional frequency domain.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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