The effect of tax-tariff reform: evidence from Ukraine
The paper examines the tax-tariff reform, recommended for Ukraine by donor organization (IMF and the World Bank), which consists in trade liberalization by way of trade tax cuts with simultaneous compensation of state tax revenue losses by VAT base broadening. We developed the mathematical model of evaluation of crossborder taxation influence on commodity flows, on economic agents’ profits and on state tax revenues, which can be considered as extension of “Devarajan” and “Emran–Stiglitz” models, with regard to possibility of tax evasion and receiving the illegally compensated VAT. The evaluation of model using data bases, prepared by Ukrainian State Statistic Committee and Customs administration of Ukraine, revealed that the expediency to reform a tax-tariff system, according to the IMF recommendations, is not clearly obvious and it depends on tax rates elasticity of size of informal sector. We find that providing the trade liberalization by way of substitution of trade tax revenues by enlarged VAT is expedient in those branches of economy, which are characterized by monopoly and oligopoly situation.
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