Impact of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement on Indian Dairy Trade: A Quantitative Approach
The study attempts a quantitative assessment of the impact of recently signed ASEAN-India FTA (AIFTA) for dairy commodities in India. ASEAN is strategically a potential market in dairy for India and our country already stands as net exporter of dairy products in this region. Partial equilibrium model (SMART model) has been used to simulate the likely impact of dairy exports to and imports from ASEAN countries under the proposed tariff reduction schedule of the AIFTA. The SMART model simulations suggest that AIFTA has generated an additional scope for India to increase its dairy exports to ASEAN countries. On the other hand, tariff elimination from India’s side creates little scope for ASEAN nations to expand their shares. The threat of cheap imports competing with the domestic products in the Indian markets is therefore not alarming. However necessary adjustment assistance may be provided to the dairy product manufacturers to counter the competition in the relevant product lines.
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