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An analysis of Champions League match statistics

  • Papahristodoulou, Christos

Official match-play statistics from the Champions League tournament between 2001-02 and 2006-07 are used to estimate the impact of various variables on the performance of the teams, measured by goal difference. We find that offensive tactics measured by simple variables, such shots on goals, for both home and away teams, as well as the ranking of the teams, or measured by transformed variables, such as such as shots on goal and corners per ball possession, have a strong positive effect. Variables with negative effects are: the punishment of the teams, measured by own yellow and red cards per fouls committed, or simply the red cards, the shots wide, the corners, the ball possession difference and how smart the defendants are playing, measured by the number of the opposite teams’ offside per own ball possession. In addition, the multinomial logistic regressions show that the differences in some match statistics and the ranking of the teams explain 9 out of 10 home victories and almost 6 out of 10 home defeats. Finally, one of the strongest explanatory variables, the positive difference in shots on goal, compared to equality in shots on goal between teams, leads to a probability of a home team victory by 66%.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3605.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3605
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  1. Falter, J.-M. & Perignon, C., 2000. "Demand for Football and Intra-Match Winning Probability: an Essay on the Glorious Uncertainty of Sports," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 2000.15, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
  2. Fiona Carmichael & Dennis Thomas & Robert Ward, 2001. "Production and Efficiency in Association Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 2(3), pages 228-243, August.
  3. Luis Garicano & Ignacio Palacios-Huerta & Canice Prendergast, 2005. "Favoritism Under Social Pressure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 208-216, May.
  4. Stefan Szymanski, 2003. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1137-1187, December.
  5. Fiona Carmichael & Dennis Thomas & Robert Ward, 2000. "Team performance: the case of English Premiership football," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 31-45.
  6. Scully, Gerald W, 1974. "Pay and Performance in Major League Baseball," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 915-30, December.
  7. Aylin Seckin, . "Home Advantage in Association Football: Evidence from Turkish Super League," EcoMod2006 272100080, EcoMod.
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