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Phénomènes financiers et mélange de lois : Une nouvelle méthode d’estimation des paramètres

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  • Chilarescu, Constantin
  • Viasu, Iana Luciana

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to examine the qualities of the mixed diffusion-jump process whose parameters are random variables. The hypothesis of a Wiener geometric process applied to exchange rate has become doubtful at the beginning of the nineties, fact determined by a high leptokurtosis of the empirical distributions. The alternative of another distribution was studied in several articles. The mathematical model proposed in this paper has as fundamental hypothesis the fact that the distribution of the continuous part of the changes in the logarithms of exchange rate is a mixture of normals whose parameters are random variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Chilarescu, Constantin & Viasu, Iana Luciana, 2011. "Phénomènes financiers et mélange de lois : Une nouvelle méthode d’estimation des paramètres," MPRA Paper 33909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33909
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jarrow, Robert A & Rosenfeld, Eric R, 1984. "Jump Risks and the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(3), pages 337-351, July.
    2. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    3. Stefano Herzel, 2000. "Option pricing with stochastic volatility models," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 23(2), pages 75-99.
    4. Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "The statistical distribution of exchange rates: Empirical evidence and economic implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 297-319, May.
    5. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
    6. Stefano Herzel, 1998. "A Simple Model for Option Pricing with Jumping Stochastic Volatility," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(04), pages 487-505.
    7. Kim, Myung-Jig & Oh, Young-Ho & Brooks, Robert, 1994. "Are Jumps in Stock Returns Diversifiable? Evidence and Implications for Option Pricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 609-631, December.
    8. Philippe Jorion, 1988. "On Jump Processes in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 427-445.
    9. Akgiray, Vedat & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1988. "Mixed Diffusion-Jump Process Modeling of Exchange Rate Movements," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 631-637, November.
    10. Hsieh, David A., 1988. "The statistical properties of daily foreign exchange rates: 1974-1983," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 129-145, February.
    11. Tucker, Alan L & Pond, Lallon, 1988. "The Probability Distribution of Foreign Exchange Price Changes: Tests of Candidate Processes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 638-647, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Victoria Golikova & Ksenia Gonchar & Boris Kuznetsov, 2011. "Entry into Export Markets as an Incentive to Innovate. Evidence from the Russian Manufacturing Industry Survey," HSE Working papers WP BRP 11/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mixed diffusion-jump process; mixture of normals;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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