Long Term Risk Assessment in a Defined Contribution Pension System
One of the most important consequences of the Chilean pension reform undertaken in the early 1980s was to transfer a significant portion of the risk associated to the financing of pensions, from the State, to the pension fund participants of the newly established compulsory pension system. This paper is concerned with the risk embedded in the portfolio strategies of pension fund portfolio managers. We develop an analytic framework that permits to incorporate the behavior of a pension fund manager in the long-term risk assessment of its investment strategy, where the latter is conducted from the point of view of the pension fund participant, who has preferences over his/her final pension. The pension fund manager’s problem is cast as a dynamic portfolio choice problem, and its solution is used afterwards to quantify the risk exposure of the pension fund participant. Our results from a simulation exercise show that the lower is the risk aversion of the participant, the higher is his/her Wealth-at-Risk —defined as the monetary compensation that leaves the participant indifferent with respect to his/her outside option— a result that is due to the fact that the outside option increases relatively more than the benefit derived from the pension provided by the fund manager. The same logic is behind the negative relationship between stock return volatility and pension risk.
|Date of creation:||31 Jul 2006|
|Date of revision:||30 Apr 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kai Detlefsen & Giacomo Scandolo, 2005. "Conditional and Dynamic Convex Risk Measures," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Patrick Cheridito & Freddy Delbaen & Michael Kupper, 2004. "Dynamic monetary risk measures for bounded discrete-time processes," Papers math/0410453, arXiv.org.
- Jérôme B. Detemple & René Garcia & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2003.
"Asymptotic Properties of Monte Carlo Estimators of Diffusion Processes,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Detemple, Jerome & Garcia, Rene & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2006. "Asymptotic properties of Monte Carlo estimators of diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 1-68, September.
- Marcel Rindisbacher & Jérôme Detemple & René Garcia, 2004. "Asymptotic Properties of Monte Carlo Estimators of Diffusion Processes," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 483, Econometric Society.
- Merton, Robert C., 1971.
"Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
- R. C. Merton, 1970. "Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model," Working papers 58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Suleyman Basak & Alex Shapiro & Lucie Teplá, 2006.
"Risk Management with Benchmarking,"
INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 542-557, April.
- Milevsky, Moshe A. & Young, Virginia R., 2007. "Annuitization and asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3138-3177, September.
- Giacomo Scandolo, 2004. "Models of Capital Requirements in Static and Dynamic Settings," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(3), pages 415-435, November.
- Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
- M. Prigent & M. De Palma, 2003. "Optimal portfolio positioning," THEMA Working Papers 2003-24, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Kai Detlefsen & Giacomo Scandolo, 2005. "Conditional and dynamic convex risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 539-561, October.
- Srinivas, P.S. & Whitehouse, Edward & Yermo, Juan, 2000.
"Regulating private pension funds'structure, performance, and investments : cross-country evidence,"
Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes
23302, The World Bank.
- Srinivas, P.S. & Whitehouse, Edward & Yermo, Juan, 2000. "Regulating private pension funds’ structure, performance and investments: cross-country evidence," MPRA Paper 14753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
- Frittelli, Marco & Rosazza Gianin, Emanuela, 2002. "Putting order in risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1473-1486, July.
- Charupat, Narat & Milevsky, Moshe A., 2002. "Optimal asset allocation in life annuities: a note," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 199-209, April.
- Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
- Eduardo Walker, 2006. "Optimal Portfolios In Defined Contribution Pension Systems," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 9(2), pages 99-129.
- Marco Frittelli & Giacomo Scandolo, 2006. "Risk Measures And Capital Requirements For Processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 589-612.
- Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Michael Stamos, 2006. "Life-Cycle Asset Allocation with Annuity Markets: Is Longevity Insurance a Good Deal?," Working Papers wp146, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3347. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.