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Seasonal bias in household vulnerability to poverty stimates: insights from a natural experiment


  • Chiwaula, Levison
  • Waibel, Hermann


Using data from 260 households from the Hadejia-Nguru wetlands, the paper shows that vulnerability to poverty estimates are biased if the data used is seasonal. The seasonal bias in the consumption expenditure is less pronounced than in its variance. The paper further shows that the relative sizes of the seasonal bias in expected consumption expenditure and its variance determines the final magnitude of the bias. However, the bias in the expected consumption expenditure is sufficiently corrected by including seasonal dummy variables. We therefore encourage researchers to consider seasonality when they are modelling consumption expenditure with the aim of estimating vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiwaula, Levison & Waibel, Hermann, 2011. "Seasonal bias in household vulnerability to poverty stimates: insights from a natural experiment," MPRA Paper 30716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30716

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ethan Ligon & Laura Schechter, 2003. "Measuring Vulnerability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 95-102, March.
    2. Naohito Abe, 2008. "Volatility in Panel Data of Household Expenditure," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d07-237, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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    More about this item


    Seasonal bias; vulnerability to poverty; natural experiment; Nigeria;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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