Seasonal bias in household vulnerability to poverty stimates: insights from a natural experiment
Using data from 260 households from the Hadejia-Nguru wetlands, the paper shows that vulnerability to poverty estimates are biased if the data used is seasonal. The seasonal bias in the consumption expenditure is less pronounced than in its variance. The paper further shows that the relative sizes of the seasonal bias in expected consumption expenditure and its variance determines the final magnitude of the bias. However, the bias in the expected consumption expenditure is sufficiently corrected by including seasonal dummy variables. We therefore encourage researchers to consider seasonality when they are modelling consumption expenditure with the aim of estimating vulnerability.
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- Ethan Ligon & Laura Schechter, 2003.
Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 95-102, March.
- Ligon, Ethan & Schechter, Laura, 2002. "Measuring Vulnerability," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19899, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Ligon, Ethan & Laura Schechter, 2002. "Measuring Vulnerability," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 128, Royal Economic Society.
- Naohito Abe, 2008. "Volatility in Panel Data of Household Expenditure," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d07-237, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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