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A re-appraisal of the fertility response to the Australian baby bonus

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  • Sinclair, Sarah
  • Boymal, Jonathan
  • de Silva, Ashton

Abstract

The Australian baby bonus offering parents $3,000 on the birth of a new child was announced on May 11 2004. The availability of five years of birth data following the introduction of the baby bonus allows for a more comprehensive analysis of the policy implications than is current in the literature. The focus of this paper is to identify if there is a positive fertility choice response to the introduction of the Australian baby bonus policy and if this response is sustained over time. To do this 19 years of birth and macroeconomic data, beginning 1990, is analysed using an unobservable components model. The results indicate a significant increase in birth numbers ten months following the announcement of the baby bonus, and this overall increase was sustained up to the end of the observed period. A cumulative growth in birth numbers which commenced in January 2006 slows in 2008 and 2009. It is suggested that the initial increase in births, identified in March 2005, is a direct fertility response to the introduction of the policy and that the subsequent change in the growth of birth numbers may be the result of a delayed effect working through a number of channels. It is estimated that approximately 119,000 births are attributable to the baby bonus over the period, at an approximate cost of $39000 per extra child.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinclair, Sarah & Boymal, Jonathan & de Silva, Ashton, 2010. "A re-appraisal of the fertility response to the Australian baby bonus," MPRA Paper 27580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27580
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Suzanne Bonner & Dipanwita Sarkar, 2020. "Who responds to fertility-boosting incentives? Evidence from pro-natal policies in Australia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(18), pages 513-548.
    2. Magdalena Smyk & Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2021. "A Cautionary Note on the Reliability of the Online Survey Data: The Case of Wage Indicator," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(1), pages 429-464, February.
    3. Fan Elliott & Maitra Pushkar, 2013. "Women Rule: Preferences and Fertility in Australian Households," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-30, April.
    4. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2018. "Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility," GRAPE Working Papers 25, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    5. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2017. "The Career Costs of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 293-337.
    6. Mengni Chen & Chris J Lloyd & Paul S F Yip, 2018. "A new method of identifying target groups for pronatalist policy applied to Australia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, February.
    7. Micaela Bassford & Hayley Fisher, 2020. "The Impact of Paid Parental Leave on Fertility Intentions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(315), pages 402-430, December.
    8. Gaitz, Jason & Schurer, Stefanie, 2017. "Bonus Skills: Examining the Effect of an Unconditional Cash Transfer on Child Human Capital Formation," IZA Discussion Papers 10525, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz & Magda Malec, 2019. "Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Raised Fertility in Poland: Overlapping Generations Model Estimates," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(4), pages 795-818, December.
    10. Neil, Amanda L. & Chappell, Kate & Wagg, Fiona & Miller, April & Judd, Fiona, 2021. "The Tasmanian Conception to Community (C2C) Study Database 2008-09 to 2013-14: Using linked health administrative data to address each piece in the puzzle," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    11. de Gendre, Alexandra & Lynch, John & Meunier, Aurélie & Pilkington, Rhiannon & Schurer, Stefanie, 2021. "Child Health and Parental Responses to an Unconditional Cash Transfer at Birth," IZA Discussion Papers 14693, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Sinclair, Sarah & Boymal, Jonathan & de Silva, Ashton J, 2012. "Is the fertility response to the Australian baby bonus heterogeneous across maternal age? Evidence from Victoria," MPRA Paper 42725, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility Rate; Time Series; baby bonus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General

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