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The chicken or the egg? A note on the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and credit default swaps

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  • Delis, Manthos D
  • Mylonidis, Nikolaos

Abstract

This note provides the first empirical assessment of the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and their associated credit default swaps (CDS). We use data for the Southern European countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) that found themselves with a problematic public sector in the dawn of the recent financial distress. We find that CDS prices Granger-cause government bond spreads after the eruption of the 2007 subprime crisis. Feedback causality is detected during periods of financial and economic turmoil, thereby indicating that high risk aversion tends to perplex the transmission mechanism between CDS prices and government bond spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Delis, Manthos D & Mylonidis, Nikolaos, 2010. "The chicken or the egg? A note on the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and credit default swaps," MPRA Paper 25270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25270
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    Cited by:

    1. Óscar Arce & Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña, 2012. "Credit-valuation in the sovereing CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 5, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
    2. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela & Tosi, Alessandra, 2021. "Time-varying price discovery in sovereign credit markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Groba, Jonatan & Lafuente, Juan A. & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "The impact of distressed economies on the EU sovereign market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2520-2532.
    4. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    5. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-43.
    6. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    7. Zubair Ali Raja & William J. Procasky & Renee Oyotode-Adebile, 2020. "The Relative Role of Sovereign CDS and Bond Markets in Efficiently Pricing Emerging Market Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(3), pages 296-325, December.
    8. Chang, Jung-Hsien & Hung, Mao-Wei & Tsai, Feng-Tse, 2015. "Credit contagion and competitive effects of bond rating downgrades along the supply chain," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 232-238.
    9. Bratis, Theodoros & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2020. "Systemic risk and financial stability dynamics during the Eurozone debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    10. Juan Ignacio Pe~na, 2019. "Credit Cycles, Securitization, and Credit Default Swaps," Papers 1901.00177, arXiv.org.
    11. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    12. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Greek sovereign bond index, volatility, and structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 687-697, October.
    13. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert, 2023. "Time-varying fund manager skills of socially responsible investing (SRI) funds in developed and emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Ribeiro, Pedro Pires & Cermeño, Rodolfo & Curto, José Dias, 2017. "Sovereign bond markets and financial volatility dynamics: Panel-GARCH evidence for six euro area countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 107-114.
    15. Nicoló Andrea Caserini & Paolo Pagnottoni, 2022. "Effective transfer entropy to measure information flows in credit markets," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(4), pages 729-757, October.
    16. Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2021. "Fund Ratings of Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) Funds: A Precautionary Note," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-25, July.
    17. Fabrizio Durante & Enrico Foscolo & Alex Weissensteiner, 2017. "Dependence between Stock Returns of Italian Banks and the Sovereign Risk," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, June.
    18. Jorge Miguel Lopo Gonçalves Andraz & Nélia Maria Afonso Norte, 2019. "Who leads the price determination in periods of financial distress: Credit default swaps or bonds spreads? Evidence for a set of EU member States," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2019_04, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    19. Téllez Valle, Cecilia & Martín García, Margarita & Ramón-Jerónimo, María A. & Martín Marín, José Luis, 2020. "Sovereign bond spreads and CDS premia in the Eurozone: A causality analysis || Diferenciales de bonos soberanos y primas de CDS en la zona euro: un análisis de causalidad," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 30(1), pages 58-78, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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