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The chicken or the egg? A note on the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and credit default swaps

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  • Delis, Manthos D.
  • Mylonidis, Nikolaos

Abstract

This note provides the first empirical assessment of the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and their associated credit default swaps (CDS). We use data for the Southern European countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) that found themselves with a problematic public sector in the dawn of the recent financial distress. We find that CDS prices Granger-cause government bond spreads after the eruption of the 2007 sub-prime crisis. Feedback causality is detected during periods of financial and economic turmoil, thereby indicating that high risk aversion tends to perplex the transmission mechanism between CDS prices and government bond spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Delis, Manthos D. & Mylonidis, Nikolaos, 2011. "The chicken or the egg? A note on the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and credit default swaps," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 163-170, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:8:y:2011:i:3:p:163-170
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Greek sovereign bond index, volatility, and structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 687-697, October.
    3. Groba, Jonatan & Lafuente, Juan A. & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "The impact of distressed economies on the EU sovereign market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2520-2532.
    4. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    5. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-43.
    6. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    7. Chang, Jung-Hsien & Hung, Mao-Wei & Tsai, Feng-Tse, 2015. "Credit contagion and competitive effects of bond rating downgrades along the supply chain," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 232-238.
    8. repec:eee:finlet:v:21:y:2017:i:c:p:107-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:2:p:23-:d:100926 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government bonds Credit default swaps Rolling Granger-causality tests;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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