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An Empirical Study of Dividend Payout and Future Earnings in Singapore


  • Lee, King Fuei


This paper applies Johansen’s vector error-correction model (VECM) to investigate for the existence of the dividend signalling effect in the Singapore aggregate market through impulse response analysis, forecast error variance decomposition and granger-causality test. Our findings show that a unit shock increase in dividend payout leads to a permanent increase in future earnings over time, thus supporting the existence of informational/signalling content in dividend payout in the Singapore market over the long run. We further find that at least half of the forecast error variance in earnings can be accounted for by innovations in the dividend payout, while the payout ratio is also shown to granger-cause earnings in the Singapore market.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, King Fuei, 2010. "An Empirical Study of Dividend Payout and Future Earnings in Singapore," MPRA Paper 23067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23067

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Test Procedures for Unit Roots in Time Series with Level Shifts at Unknown Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 91-115, February.
    2. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
    3. Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 373-406, June.
    4. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    5. Kalay, Avner, 1980. "Signaling, Information Content, and the Reluctance to Cut Dividends," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 855-869, November.
    6. Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Level Shift At Unknown Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 313-348, April.
    7. Ball, Ray & Watts, Ross, 1972. "Some Time Series Properties of Accounting Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 663-681, June.
    8. Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2001. "Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-8.
    9. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 1999. "Comparison of unit root tests for time series with level shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,88, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chin-Chen Chien & Cheng-Few Lee & She Chih Chiu, 2016. "Does Corporate Governance Curb Managers’ Opportunistic Behavior of Exploiting Inside Information for Early Exercise of Executive Stock Options?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(01), pages 1-22, March.

    More about this item


    Dividend payout; future earnings; dividend signalling; Singapore; impulse response function;

    JEL classification:

    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

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