IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v56y2021i2d10.1007_s11156-020-00899-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does managerial reluctance of dividend cuts signal future earnings?

Author

Listed:
  • James Juichia Lin

    (National Chiao Tung University)

  • Cheng-Few Lee

    (Rutgers University)

Abstract

In this study, we develop alternative dividend stickiness measures as a proxy for managerial reluctance to cut dividends and investigate the information content of dividend stickiness. We find that firms with stickier dividend payout have greater earnings persistence, earnings growth, and pricing multiples on earnings. Further analysis shows that the signaling effect of dividend stickiness on future earnings is more pronounced for firms with less catering incentives to avoid dividend cuts. Our results suggest that dividend stickiness has incremental explanation over dividend payout for signaling future earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • James Juichia Lin & Cheng-Few Lee, 2021. "Does managerial reluctance of dividend cuts signal future earnings?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 453-478, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:56:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-020-00899-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-020-00899-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-020-00899-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-020-00899-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. King Fuei Lee, 2010. "An Empirical Study of Dividend Payout and Future Earnings in Singapore," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 267-286.
    2. Ashiq Ali & Oktay Urcan, 2012. "Dividend increases and future earnings," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 12-25.
    3. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 1988. "Earnings information conveyed by dividend initiations and omissions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 149-175, September.
    4. Ilan Guttman & Ohad Kadan & Eugene Kandel, 2010. "Dividend Stickiness and Strategic Pooling," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4455-4495, December.
    5. Blau, Benjamin M. & Fuller, Kathleen P., 2008. "Flexibility and dividends," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-152, April.
    6. Eva Liljeblom & Sabur Mollah & Patrik Rotter, 2015. "Do dividends signal future earnings in the Nordic stock markets?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 493-511, April.
    7. Ofer, Aharon R & Siegel, Daniel R, 1987. "Corporate Financial Policy, Information, and Market Expectations: An Empirical Investigation of Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 889-911, September.
    8. Rapp, Marc Steffen & Schmid, Thomas & Urban, Daniel, 2014. "The value of financial flexibility and corporate financial policy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 288-302.
    9. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Stulz, Rene M., 2006. "Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: a test of the life-cycle theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 227-254, August.
    10. Floyd, Eric & Li, Nan & Skinner, Douglas J., 2015. "Payout policy through the financial crisis: The growth of repurchases and the resilience of dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 299-316.
    11. Brav, Alon & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Michaely, Roni, 2005. "Payout policy in the 21st century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 483-527, September.
    12. Louis T. W. Cheng & Hung-Gay Fung & T. Y. Leung, 2008. "What Drives the Cash Dividend Policy of the Poorly Performing Firms in Hong Kong?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(03), pages 347-361.
    13. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    14. Louis Cheng & Hung-Gay Fung & Tak Leung, 2007. "Information effects of dividends: Evidence from the Hong Kong market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 23-54, January.
    15. Dong-Hoon Yang, 2009. "Signaling through Accounting Accruals vs. Financial Policy: Evidence from Bank Loan Loss Provisions and Dividend Changes," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 377-402.
    16. Ham, Charles G. & Kaplan, Zachary R. & Leary, Mark T., 2020. "Do dividends convey information about future earnings?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 547-570.
    17. Woo-Jong Lee, 2011. "Managerial entrenchment and the value of dividends," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 297-322, February.
    18. Alan D. Crane & Sébastien Michenaud & James P. Weston, 2016. "Editor's Choice The Effect of Institutional Ownership on Payout Policy: Evidence from Index Thresholds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(6), pages 1377-1408.
    19. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "A Catering Theory of Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1125-1165, June.
    20. Bart M. Lambrecht & Stewart C. Myers, 2012. "A Lintner Model of Payout and Managerial Rents," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(5), pages 1761-1810, October.
    21. Mark T. Leary & Roni Michaely, 2011. "Determinants of Dividend Smoothing: Empirical Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(10), pages 3197-3249.
    22. Hong-Yi Chen & Manak C. Gupta & Alice C. Lee & Cheng Few Lee, 2020. "Sustainable Growth Rate, Optimal Growth Rate, and Optimal Payout Ratio: A Joint Optimization Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 97, pages 3413-3464, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Woolridge, J Randall, 1983. "Dividend Changes and Security Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1607-1615, December.
    24. Officer, Micah S., 2011. "Overinvestment, corporate governance, and dividend initiations," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 710-724, June.
    25. Benartzi, Shlomo & Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H, 1997. "Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1007-1034, July.
    26. Li, Wei & Lie, Erik, 2006. "Dividend changes and catering incentives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 293-308, May.
    27. Yoon, Pyung Sig & Starks, Laura T, 1995. "Signaling, Investment Opportunities, and Dividend Announcements," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 995-1018.
    28. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely & Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 2005. "Dividend Changes Do Not Signal Changes in Future Profitability," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(5), pages 1659-1682, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anshu Agrawal, 2021. "Impact of Elimination of Dividend Distribution Tax on Indian Corporate Firms Amid COVID Disruptions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-38, September.
    2. Khelifa Mazouz & Yuliang Wu & Rabab Ebrahim & Abhijit Sharma, 2023. "Dividend policy, systematic liquidity risk, and the cost of equity capital," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 839-876, April.
    3. Bai-Sian Chen & Hong-Yi Chen & Hsiao-Yin Chen & Fang-Chi Lin, 2022. "Corporate growth and strategic payout policy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 641-669, August.
    4. Mike Adams & Wei Jiang & Tianshu Ma, 2024. "CEO power, corporate risk management, and dividends: disentangling CEO managerial ability from entrenchment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 683-717, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheng-few Lee & James Juichia Lin, 2023. "Generalized dividend behavior model and dividend smoothing: theory and empirical evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1529-1561, November.
    2. Eva Liljeblom & Sabur Mollah & Patrik Rotter, 2015. "Do dividends signal future earnings in the Nordic stock markets?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 493-511, April.
    3. Abdullah AlGhazali & Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee & Richard Fairchild & Yilmaz Guney, 2024. "What do dividend changes reveal? Theory and evidence from a unique environment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 499-552, February.
    4. Chin-Sheng Huang & Chun-Fan You & Hsiao-Fen Hsiao, 2017. "Dividends and Subsequent Profitability: An Examination of a Dual Dividend Stock Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-35, March.
    5. Andres, Christian & Hofbaur, Ulrich, 2017. "Do what you did four quarters ago: Trends and implications of quarterly dividends," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 139-158.
    6. Xin Che & Kathleen P. Fuller, 2020. "What does the timing of dividend reductions signal?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1035-1061, October.
    7. Ye, Dezhu & Deng, Jie & Liu, Yi & Szewczyk, Samuel H. & Chen, Xiao, 2019. "Does board gender diversity increase dividend payouts? Analysis of global evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-26.
    8. Jian Cao & Thomas R. Kubick & Adi N. S. Masli, 2017. "Do corporate payouts signal going-concern risk for auditors? Evidence from audit reports for companies in financial distress," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 599-631, October.
    9. De Cesari, Amedeo & Huang-Meier, Winifred, 2015. "Dividend changes and stock price informativeness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-17.
    10. Charmaine Glegg & Oneil Harris & Thanh Ngo, 2018. "Corporate social responsibility and the wealth gains from dividend increases," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 149-166, April.
    11. Grennan, Jillian, 2019. "Dividend payments as a response to peer influence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 549-570.
    12. Ed-Dafali, Slimane & Patel, Ritesh & Iqbal, Najaf, 2023. "A bibliometric review of dividend policy literature," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Alderson, Michael J. & Betker, Brian L. & Halford, Joseph T., 2021. "Fictitious dividend cuts in the CRSP data," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Mazur, Mieszko & Dang, Man & Vo, Thuy Anh Thi, 2020. "Dividend Policy and the COVID-19 Crisis," MPRA Paper 108765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Paul Tanyi & David B. Smith & Xiaoyan Cheng, 2021. "Does firm payout policy affect shareholders’ dissatisfaction with directors?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 279-320, July.
    16. Adhikari, Binay K. & Agrawal, Anup, 2018. "Peer influence on payout policies," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 615-637.
    17. Lee, Bong Soo & Mauck, Nathan, 2016. "Dividend initiations, increases and idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 47-60.
    18. Blau, Benjamin M. & Fuller, Kathleen P., 2008. "Flexibility and dividends," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-152, April.
    19. Ham, Charles G. & Kaplan, Zachary R. & Leary, Mark T., 2020. "Do dividends convey information about future earnings?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 547-570.
    20. Booth, Laurence & Zhou, Jun, 2017. "Dividend policy: A selective review of results from around the world," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-15.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:56:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-020-00899-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.