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A birth-cohort test of the wilson willis model of nonmarital fertility

  • Gray, Joanna
  • Stockard, Jean
  • Stone, Joe

This paper offers the first birth-cohort test of the Wilson-Willis model of black-white differences in nonmarital childbearing. Cohort data are uniquely suited to the model, and unlike prior evidence, support the power of the model’s predictions: For blacks, the nonmarital birth share rises, as predicted, with the ratio of female to male resources, but decreases for whites. Similarly, the nonmarital birth share for blacks decreases with the ratio of eligible men to women for blacks, as predicted, yet increases for whites. The model explains a majority of the racial difference in nonmarital birth shares.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22538/1/MPRA_paper_22538.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22538.

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Date of creation: 07 May 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22538
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  1. Lerman, Robert I, 1989. "Employment Opportunities of Young Men and Family Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 62-66, May.
  2. Gordon Sutton & Gooloo Wunderlich, 1967. "Estimating marital fertility rates by educational attainment using a survey of new mothers," Demography, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142, March.
  3. Scott South & Kim Lloyd, 1992. "Marriage markets and nonmarital fertility in the United States," Demography, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 247-264, May.
  4. Derek Neal, 2004. "The Relationship Between Marriage Market Prospects and Never-Married Motherhood," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(4).
  5. Adam Isen & Betsey Stevenson, 2010. "Women's Education and Family Behavior: Trends in Marriage, Divorce and Fertility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2940, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Oaxaca, Ronald, 1973. "Male-Female Wage Differentials in Urban Labor Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 693-709, October.
  7. Josh Angrist, 2002. "How Do Sex Ratios Affect Marriage And Labor Markets? Evidence From America'S Second Generation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(3), pages 997-1038, August.
  8. Derek Neal, 2001. "The Economics of Family Structure," NBER Working Papers 8519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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