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The Troika process: Economic models and macroeconomic policy in the USA

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  • Donihue, Michael
  • Kitchen, John

Abstract

In the executive branch of the U.S. Federal government, a group known as the Troika -- comprised of senior officials of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, the Department of the Treasury, and the Office of Management and Budget -- plays an important role in developing the economic agenda for each Administration. The Troika develops the economic assumptions underlying the Administration’s budget proposals including an assessment of current economic conditions and forecasts for key economic indicators. It meets regularly to address a variety of policy issues, to evaluate and modify the Administration’s forecasts, and to monitor the current stance of fiscal and monetary policies relative to the economy’s position in the business cycle. This paper provides an overview of the Troika process and the role of empirical models in the development of the fiscal policies and macroeconomic forecasts of the U.S. government.

Suggested Citation

  • Donihue, Michael & Kitchen, John, 1999. "The Troika process: Economic models and macroeconomic policy in the USA," MPRA Paper 22216, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22216
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22216/1/MPRA_paper_22216.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herbert Stein, 1996. "A Successful Accident: Recollections and Speculations about the CEA," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 3-21, Summer.
    2. Charles L. Schultze, 1996. "The CEA: An Inside Voice for Mainstream Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 23-39, Summer.
    3. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kitchen, John, 2003. "Observed Relationships Between Economic and Technical Receipts Revisions in Federal Budget Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 56(2), pages 337-353, June.
    2. den Butter, Frank A. G. & Morgan, Mary S., 1998. "What makes the models-policy interaction successful?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 443-475, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic forecasting; econometric models; government policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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