‘The Greatest Bubble in History’: Stock Prices during the British Railway Mania
Although the British Railway Mania has been described as one of the greatest bubbles in history, it has been largely neglected by academics. This paper attempts to redress this neglect by creating a daily stock price index for the 1843-50 period and by assessing the contribution of the many newly-created railways to the bubble-like pattern in stock prices. The paper then examines whether this bubble-like pattern was due to an increase in the stochastic discount factor arising from an increase in the probability of large-scale adoption of railway technology. We find little evidence to support this hypothesis.
|Date of creation:||31 Mar 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gary S. Shea, 2005. "Understanding financial derivatives during the South Sea Bubble: the case of the South Sea subscription shares," CDMA Working Paper Series 200512, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
[This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly]," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- White, Eugene N, 1990. "The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 67-83, Spring.
- Gary S. Shea, 2007. "Financial market analysis can go mad (in the search for irrational behaviour during the South Sea Bubble) -super-1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 60(4), pages 742-765, November.
- Donaldson, R Glen & Kamstra, Mark, 1996. "A New Dividend Forecasting Procedure That Rejects Bubbles in Asset Prices: The Case of 1929's Stock Crash," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 333-83.
- Campbell, Gareth, 2013. "Deriving the railway mania," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(01), pages 1-27, April.
- Peter Rappoport & Eugene N. White, 1991.
"Was there a bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?,"
NBER Working Papers
3612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- François R. Velde, 2007. "John Law's System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 276-279, May.
- Mitchell, B. R., 1964. "The Coming of the Railway and United Kingdom Economic Growth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(03), pages 315-336, September.
- Peter M. Garber, 2001. "Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262571536, June.
- Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2005.
"Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Acheson, Graeme G. & Hickson, Charles R. & Turner, John D. & Ye, Qing, 2009. "Rule Britannia! British Stock Market Returns, 1825-1870," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(04), pages 1107-1137, December.
- Acheson, Graeme G. & Turner, John D., 2008. "The secondary market for bank shares in nineteenth-century Britain," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(02), pages 123-151, October.
- Carlos, Ann M. & Moyen, Nathalie & Hill, Jonathan, 2002. "Royal African Company Share Prices during the South Sea Bubble," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 61-87, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21820. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.