Mean, Median or Mode? A Striking Conclusion From Lottery Experiments
This paper deals with estimating data from experiments determining lottery certainty equivalents. The paper presents the parametric and nonparametric results of the least squares (mean), quantile (including median) and mode estimations. The examined data are found to be positively skewed for low probabilities and negatively skewed for high probabilities. This observation leads to the striking conclusion that lottery valuations are only nonlinearly related to probability when means are considered. Such nonlinearity is not confirmed by the mode estimator in which case the most likely lottery valuations are close to their expected values. This means that the most likely behavior of a group is fully rational. This conclusion is a significant departure from one of the fundamental results concerning lottery experiments presented so far.
|Date of creation:||30 Mar 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schmidt, Ulrich & Traub, Stefan, 2009.
"An experimental investigation of the disparity between WTA and WTP for lotteries,"
Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy
28786, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Ulrich Schmidt & Stefan Traub, 2009. "An Experimental Investigation of the Disparity Between WTA and WTP for Lotteries," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 229-262, March.
- Traub, Stefan & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2006. "An Experimental Investigation of the Disparity between WTA and WTP for Lotteries," Economics Working Papers 2006,09, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Lee, Myoung-jae, 1989. "Mode regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 337-349, November.
- Krzysztof Kontek, 2009. "Lottery valuation using the aspiration / relative utility function," Working Papers 39, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
- Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
- Kontek, Krzysztof, 2009. "Absolute vs. Relative Notion of Wealth Changes," MPRA Paper 17336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21758. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.