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Iterated Expectations under Rank-Dependent Expected Utility and Model Consistency

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Stomper

    () (Humboldt University)

  • Marie-Louise Vierø

    () (Queen's University)

Abstract

Under expected utility theory, compound lotteries can be valued by "iterating" expectations: the expected utility of a compound lottery is the expected value of a simple lottery over prizes that are certainty equivalents to follow-up lotteries. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for a similar valuation technique in the framework of rank-dependent expected utility (RDU) when a decision maker has to choose between prospects that belong to a comonotonic class and his preferences satisfy consequentialism. The conditions are so restrictive that they can be viewed as an impossibility result. Our contribution thus identifies a challenge for future research. If we accept RDU as the model of behavior, we either need to find alternative valuation algorithms, or we need to relax the assumption of preference exogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Stomper & Marie-Louise Vierø, 2015. "Iterated Expectations under Rank-Dependent Expected Utility and Model Consistency," Working Papers 1228, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1228
    as

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    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1228.pdf
    File Function: First version 2015
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, pages 33-49.
    2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    3. Sarin, Rakesh & Wakker, Peter P, 1998. "Revealed Likelihood and Knightian Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 223-250, July-Aug..
    4. Drazen Prelec, 1998. "The Probability Weighting Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 497-528, May.
    5. Wakker, Peter & Tversky, Amos, 1993. "An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 147-175, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Iterated expectations; rank-dependent expected utility; model consistency; valuation methods; probability weighting function; conditioning; updating; dynamic consistency; consequentialism;

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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