Ageing and Export Dependency
The primary manifestation of the demographic transition in a modern economic context is through ageing and the primary transmission from ageing to the macro economy is through its effect on saving and investment behavior. These two effects taken together suggest a strong impact from the continuing process of ageing on international capital flows and global macroeconomic imbalances. This paper explores the potential relationship between ageing on a macroeconomic level and the reliance, or outright dependency, on exports and foreign asset income to achieve economic growth. The paper’s argument is both theoretical and empirical. Using a standard overlapping generation framework (OLG) in an open economy context this paper discusses whether the proposed relationship between a transition into old age and dissaving is feasible and desirable (or even optimal?). Finally, an empirical analysis is presented on Germany and Japan to show how these two economies, as the oldest in the world, may exactly be in a state of export dependency.
|Date of creation:||01 Oct 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
- Buiter, Willem H, 1981.
"Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 769-97, August.
- Willem H. Buiter, 1979. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," NBER Working Papers 0352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007.
"Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?,"
NBER Working Papers
13221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
- repec:gdm:wpaper:2006 is not listed on IDEAS
- Börsch-Supan, Axel & Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007.
"Demographic change, relative factor prices, international capital flows, and their differential effects on the welfare of generations,"
07-14, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
- Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger & Axel Börsch-Supan, 2009. "Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, and Their Differential Effects on the Welfare of Generations," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 385-414 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krueger & Axel H. Boersch-Supan, 2007. "Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, and Their Differential Effects on the Welfare of Generations," NBER Working Papers 13185, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ludwig, Alexander & Krüger, Dirk & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2007. "Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, and their Differential Effects on the Welfare of Generations," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990.
"An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2009. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," NBER Working Papers 14820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2008.
"The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per capita GDP,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 589-608, July.
- Gómez, Rafael & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2006. "The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per-capita GDP," Working Paper Series 0670, European Central Bank.
- Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:17655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.