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Gambling Preference and the New Year Effect of Assets with Lottery Features

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  • Doran, James
  • Jiang, Danling
  • Peterson, David

Abstract

This paper examines whether investors exhibit a New Year's gambling preference and whether such preference impacts prices and returns of assets with lottery features. In January, calls options have higher demand than put options, especially by small investors. In addition, relative to at-the-money calls, out-of-the-money calls are the most expensive and actively traded. In the equity markets, lottery-type stocks in the US outperform their counterparts mainly in January, but tend to underperform in other months. Lottery-type Chinese stocks outperform in the Chinese New Year month, but not in January. This New Year effect provides new insights into the broad phenomena related to the January effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Doran, James & Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David, 2008. "Gambling Preference and the New Year Effect of Assets with Lottery Features," MPRA Paper 15463, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Mar 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15463
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hur, Jungshik & Pettengill, Glenn & Singh, Vivek, 2014. "Market states and the risk-based explanation of the size premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 139-150.
    2. Vidal-García, Javier & Vidal, Marta, 2014. "Seasonality and idiosyncratic risk in mutual fund performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 613-624.
    3. Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David R. & Doran, James S., 2014. "Short-sale constraints and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: An event study approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 36-59.
    4. Marshall, Ben R. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2010. "The Other January Effect: Evidence against market efficiency?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2413-2424, October.
    5. Stephan Meyer & Sebastian Schroff & Christof Weinhardt, 2014. "(Un)skilled leveraged trading of retail investors," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 28(2), pages 111-138, May.
    6. Yu Liang & Weiqiang Zhang, 2016. "Do Investors Buy Lotteries in China’s Stock Market?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(5), pages 1-5.
    7. Kelley Bergsma & Danling Jiang, 2016. "Cultural New Year Holidays and Stock Returns around the World," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 3-35, March.
    8. Chang, Eric C. & Luo, Yan & Ren, Jinjuan, 2013. "Pricing deviation, misvaluation comovement, and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5285-5299.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    January effect; Gambling; Preference for skewness; Out-of-the-money options; China;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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