Empirical Verification of an Asset Dynamics Model in Open Economies: An Equilibrium Theory Endogenizing Imbalances Bridging Steady-State Conditions and Social Adaptation

The general equilibrium theory, upon which mainstream modern macroeconomics relies, fails to adequately explain the realities enveloping the contemporary economy, including persistent global imbalances. In contrast, our previous studies (Kitamura, 2025, 2026) have proposed a theoretical model based on "asset dynamics" that conceptualizes the global economy as a dissipative structure woven by the concentration and diffusion of funds. We understand it as an "equilibrium theory endogenizing imbalances" where economies, each harboring its own imbalances, maintain a balance by compensating for each other's surpluses and deficits. This paper statistically verifies the empirical validity of this theoretical framework using multi-source macroeconomic data and socio-psychological indicators. Targeting approximately 80 countries for which data are available, we redefine a socio-psychological indicator based on a large-scale international survey regarding time value, patience, and other attributes, as a proxy for the divergence between the real interest rate and the time preference rate—which constitutes one side of the steady-state condition derived from our theoretical model. Conducting a regression analysis using the structural terms that constitute the right-hand side of the conditional equation, namely population changes, capital transfer, and asset preference, we obtained statistically significant results, including the sign conditions. Furthermore, by utilizing these estimation results, we visualized the dissipative structure that weaves the global economy, rendering the contrasting positions and interdependence of the two major economic superpowers as data-driven facts, such as the United States as a self-organizing economy and China as a dissipative economy. The contributions of this paper provide an empirical foundation for a new macroeconomic paradigm that reframes imbalances not as an undesirable state to be eliminated, but endogenously explains them as the energy required for the global economic system to maintain its vitality.