IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/127930.html

Intelligence artificielle et transformation de la relation croissance –emploi : une relecture empirique de la loi d’okun
[Artificial Intelligence and the transformation of the growth–employment nexus: an empirical reappraisal of okun’s law]

Author

Listed:
  • Kahambwe, Christ
  • Aidini, Christian
  • E.Loemba, Alexandre

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and technological progress on the relationship between economic growth and unemployment, traditionally described by Okun’s law. Using panel data for 11 developed countries over the period 2000–2024, the analysis relies on fixed-effects models and dynamic specifications estimated through the System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM). Technological intensity is proxied by an information and communication technology (ICT) index, and an interaction term is introduced to assess its moderating role in the growth–employment relationship. The results confirm the short-run validity of Okun’s law, as economic growth exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on changes in unemployment. However, technological intensity has a positive direct effect on unemployment and weakens the ability of growth to reduce unemployment, suggesting adjustment costs related to automation. Overall, the findings point to a structural transformation of the growth–employment nexus and highlight the need for active policies in skills development and labor market adjustment to ensure more inclusive growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Kahambwe, Christ & Aidini, Christian & E.Loemba, Alexandre, 2026. "Intelligence artificielle et transformation de la relation croissance –emploi : une relecture empirique de la loi d’okun [Artificial Intelligence and the transformation of the growth–employment nexus: an empirical reappraisal of okun’s law]," MPRA Paper 127930, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:127930
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/127930/1/MPRA_paper_127930.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    4. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "Perspectives on The Rise and Fall of American Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 72-76, May.
    5. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    6. ., 2023. "The artificial intelligence ecosystem," Chapters, in: The Rise of Algorithmic Society and the Strategic Role of Arts and Culture, chapter 2, pages 6-30, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    8. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Davide Consoli & Francesco Vona & Francesco Rentocchini, 2016. "That was then, this is now: skills and routinization in the 2000s," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 25(5), pages 847-866.
    2. Manish Kumar Sharma & Anwesha Aditya, 2026. "Dual edge of export quality: does it boost employment? Insights from OECD and G20 Countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 1-84, July.
    3. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    4. Rusiadi Rusiadi & Muhammad Hidayat & Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty & Kiki Farida Ferine & Jumadil Saputra, 2024. "The Influence of Natural Resources, Energy Consumption, and Renewable Energy on Economic Growth in ASEAN Region Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 14(3), pages 332-338, May.
    5. Shrabani Saha & Kunal Sen, 2019. "The corruption-growth relationship: Do political institutions matter?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-65, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2017. "Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 293-351, April.
    7. Mariusz Próchniak & Bartosz Witkowski, 2006. "Modelowanie realnej konwergencji w skali międzynarodowej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 10, pages 1-31.
    8. Smaoui, Houcem & Nechi, Salem, 2017. "Does sukuk market development spur economic growth?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 136-147.
    9. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    10. Hamoun Doroudi & Fateme Helma Ghasemi Goudarzi & Bijay Kumar Kandel, 2022. "The effect of the competitiveness index on economic growth, with an emphasis on institutional and structural variables: 10 selected countries exporting oil," Philosophy, Economics and Law Review Articles, Philosophy, Economics and Law Review, vol. 2(2), pages 85-95, December.
    11. Asongu Simplice & Nwachukwu Jacinta, 2018. "Fighting Terrorism: Empirics on Policy Harmonisation," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 237-259, August.
    12. Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2018. "Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries. The role of exports and global value chains," NBP Working Papers 283, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    13. Asongu, Simplice & Andrés, Antonio R., 2015. "Trajectories in Knowledge Economy: Empirics from SSA and MENA countries," MPRA Paper 71786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Moaniba, Igam M. & Su, Hsin-Ning & Lee, Pei-Chun, 2019. "On the drivers of innovation: Does the co-evolution of technological diversification and international collaboration matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    15. Antonio Francesco Gravina, 2020. "Nonlinearities and the Determinants of Inequality: New Panel Evidence," Working Papers 2020.22, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    16. Nikolaos Terzidis & Raquel Ortega‐Argilés, 2021. "Employment polarization in regional labor markets: Evidence from the Netherlands," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(5), pages 971-1001, November.
    17. Rafiou Raphaël Bétila, 2021. "The impact of Ease of Doing Business on economic growth: a dynamic panel analysis for African countries," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-34, October.
    18. Asongu Simplice & Andrés Antonio, 2014. "Global trajectories, dynamics, and tendencies of business software piracy: benchmarking IPRs harmonization," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 14/011, African Governance and Development Institute..
    19. Celine Bonnefond, 2014. "Growth Dynamics And Conditional Convergence Among Chinese Provinces: A Panel Data Investigation Using System Gmm Estimator," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 1-25, December.
    20. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Hassan, Gazi Mainul, 2011. "A panel data analysis of the growth effects of remittances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 701-709, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:127930. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.