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بررسی همبستگی میان نوسانات نرخ ارز، نوسانات مخارج جاری دولت و بدهی دولت به شبکه بانکی با تاکید بر مقیاس-زمان
[Investigating the correlation between exchange rate fluctuations, current government expenditures fluctuations and government debt to the banking network with emphasis on time-scale]

Author

Listed:
  • Roudari, Soheil
  • Homayounifar, Masoud
  • Salimifar, Mostafa

Abstract

The banking network plays a prominent role in the financing of businesses. In this study, using the wavelet transform model during the period of 1388-1397 monthly, the nominal exchange rate volatilities, government debt to the banking network, and current government expenditures are divided into three levels by using wavelet transform. In the short term, there is no significant correlation between nominal exchange rate fluctuations and current government spending fluctuations. Interestingly, there is a significant correlation between government debt to banking network fluctuations and exchange rate fluctuations. This indicates that about 17% of the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and government debt to the banking network are consistent. Significantly, there is a relatively high correlation between government debt to banking network fluctuations and current government spending fluctuations in the short term, and about 32.5 percent of changes and fluctuations in each have led to a change in the other one, and in fact It can show the lack of independence of the country's banking network and the dependence and attitude of the government to provide current expenses from this source. There is a positive and significant correlation between nominal exchange rate fluctuations and current government spending fluctuations in the medium term. Of course, only about 19% of the fluctuations in each are positively followed by other fluctuations. In the medium term, the movement between exchange rate fluctuations and government debt to banking network fluctuations increases compared to the short-term (0.26), and this can also indicate the delayed effects of the exchange rate. Interestingly, there is a high correlation between government debt to banking network fluctuations and current government spending fluctuations, and over a longer period the fluctuations between the two are more intense in terms of intensity and direction. The time factor plays a very important role in the correlation between government debt fluctuations and exchange rate fluctuations. The correlation between these two cases started from about 0.17 in the short term and reached 0.53 in the long run. In terms of time factor, it has shown more biger about fluctuations in current government expenditures and fluctuations in government debt to banks than the other cases. The correlation between the two fluctuations has risen from 32.5 percent in the short term to 76 percent in the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Roudari, Soheil & Homayounifar, Masoud & Salimifar, Mostafa, 2019. "بررسی همبستگی میان نوسانات نرخ ارز، نوسانات مخارج جاری دولت و بدهی دولت به شبکه بانکی با تاکید بر مقیاس-زمان [Investigating the correlation between exchange rate fluctuations, current government ex," MPRA Paper 127019, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Apr 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:127019
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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