Socioeconomic Determinants and Tuberculosis Burden: A Panel Data Analysis of Indonesian Provinces

The threat of tuberculosis (TB) persists globally, with 10 million individuals affected by the disease in 2018, resulting in 1.5 million deaths. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Indonesia ranks third in the world for TB cases. It is estimated that 845,000 individuals in Indonesia were afflicted with TB, yet only 68 percent of these cases were identified and treated in 2018. This study evaluated the impact of socioeconomic factors on the prevalence of TB in 34 Indonesian provinces from to 2005-2018 period. The findings indicate that demographic factors, such as population size, population density, and number of impoverished individuals, are positively and significantly correlated with the incidence of TB. Conversely, GRDP per capita, the number of healthcare workers, and literacy rates were negatively and significantly correlated with the incidence of TB. From the findings of this study, it can be concluded that population factors have influenced the increasing number of TB cases in Indonesia. Therefore, controlling population growth, high population density, and poverty must be the government’s focus to reduce new TB cases through family planning programs, transmigration programs to areas with low population density, and increased social assistance for the poor and vulnerable to improve their standard of living. Furthermore, the health infrastructure budget must be increased, the economy must remain competitive and secure, and investment in human capital must be continuously increased.