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La desconfiguración del orden mundial y los aranceles: Efectos sobre la economía de Galicia
[The deconfiguration of the world order and tariffs: Effects on the Galician economy]

Author

Listed:
  • González Laxe, Fernando
  • Armesto Pina, José Francisco
  • Sanchez-Fernandez, Patricio

Abstract

On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election and, in February 2025, announced new tariffs, defending them as a way to make America "great and rich" again. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods that increase prices, affect consumers and businesses, and cause negative effects such as inflation, reduced investment, and greater uncertainty. Spain is one of the European economies with the least direct exposure to the United States, although it is not free from risk; in 2024, it exported goods worth €18.379 billion, compared to Germany's €161 billion. In Galicia, the external sector is highly concentrated geographically and by industry. Its exports to the U.S. amounted to €2.093 billion, 4.5% of Spain's total, below Galicia’s overall weight in national foreign trade (6.6%). The impact of additional tariffs on Galician exports is relatively small. Specifically, if tariffs increased by 20%, Galicia’s economy would see a 0.20% drop in GDP, plus an additional 0.09% due to the effect on supplies to European exporters. The total impact would be a 0.29% decrease in GDP—lower than the expected impact on the Spanish economy (0.31%) and that of the Basque Country (0.66%) and Catalonia (0.36%).

Suggested Citation

  • González Laxe, Fernando & Armesto Pina, José Francisco & Sanchez-Fernandez, Patricio, 2025. "La desconfiguración del orden mundial y los aranceles: Efectos sobre la economía de Galicia [The deconfiguration of the world order and tariffs: Effects on the Galician economy]," MPRA Paper 124761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:124761
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/124761/1/MPRA_paper_124761.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other

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