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Coûts de la Covid-19, Tropicalisation de modèle épidémiologique et Arbitrage santé-économie en Afrique
[Costs of Covid-19, Tropicalization of the epidemiological model and Health-economic trade-off in Africa]

Author

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  • KOUAKOU, Thiédjé Gaudens-Omer

Abstract

We model the optimal behavior of the public decision-maker of an African country plagued by covid-19, with little fiscal room for maneuver and facing a health-economy dilemma. The model shows that a substantial part of the economic costs of covid-19 is due to a deficit in tropicalization of the epidemiological model. A comparative static analysis of the optimal equilibrium shows that the public decision-maker can reduce the economic costs of covid-19 in two ways: either he relaxes the barrier measures at the cost of an increase in human costs (health-economy trade-off); or he tropicalizes the epidemiological model as best he can, without increasing health costs (no health-economy trade-off). This last strategy is an alternative that can allow African countries to face a pandemic crisis economically, without sacrificing health while minimizing the systematic recourse to debt and aid.

Suggested Citation

  • KOUAKOU, Thiédjé Gaudens-Omer, 2025. "Coûts de la Covid-19, Tropicalisation de modèle épidémiologique et Arbitrage santé-économie en Afrique [Costs of Covid-19, Tropicalization of the epidemiological model and Health-economic trade-off," MPRA Paper 123467, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:123467
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2023. "Time varying Markov process with partially observed aggregate data: An application to coronavirus," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 35-51.
    2. Christian Gollier, 2020. "If the Objective is Herd Immunity, on Whom Should it be Built?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 671-683, August.
    3. Zhixian Lin & Christopher M. Meissner, 2020. "Health vs. Wealth? Public Health Policies and the Economy During Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 27099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    arbitrage santé-économie; covid-19; modèle épidémiologique; Afrique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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