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If the objective is herd immunity, on whom should it be built?

Author

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  • Christian Gollier

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

Assuming that there is no other solution than herd immunity in front of the current pandemic, on which groups of citizens should we build this herd immunity? Given the fact that young people face a mortality rate which is at least a thousand times smaller than people aged 70 years and more, there is a simple rational to build it on these younger generations. The transfer of some mortality risk from the elderly to younger people raises difficult ethical issues. However, none of the familiar moral or operational guidelines (equality of rights, VSL, QALY, ...) that have been used in the Western world over the last century weights the value of young lives 1000 times or more than the lives of the elders. This suggests that Society could offer covid protection to the elders by recommending them to remain confined as long as this herd immunity has not been attained by the younger generations. This would be a potent demonstration of intergenerational solidarity towards the most vulnerable people in our community. The welfare gain of this age-specific deconfinement strategy is huge, as it can reduce the global death toll by more than 80% as compared to a strategy of non-targeted herd immunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gollier, 2020. "If the objective is herd immunity, on whom should it be built?," Post-Print hal-03160822, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03160822
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-020-00504-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Gollier, 2020. "Cost–benefit analysis of age‐specific deconfinement strategies," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(6), pages 1746-1771, December.
    2. Guimarães, Luís, 2021. "Antibody tests: They are more important than we thought," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Thuilliez, Josselin & Touré, Nouhoum, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. James K. Hammitt, 2020. "Valuing mortality risk in the time of COVID-19," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 129-154, October.
    5. KOUAKOU, Thiédjé Gaudens-Omer, 2025. "Coûts de la Covid-19, Tropicalisation de modèle épidémiologique et Arbitrage santé-économie en Afrique [Costs of Covid-19, Tropicalization of the epidemiological model and Health-economic trade-off in Africa]," MPRA Paper 123467, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Josselin Thuilliez & Nouhoum Touré, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Post-Print hal-04490900, HAL.
    7. Guimaraes, Luis, 2020. "Antibody Tests: They are More Important than We Thought," QBS Working Paper Series 2020/07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    8. Santos, Cezar & Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Tertilt, Michèle, 2020. "An economic model of the Covid-19 epidemic: The importance of testing and age-specific policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 14695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Sandrine Spaeter, 2021. "How to Reconcile Pandemic Business Interruption Risk With Insurance Coverage," Working Papers of BETA 2021-18, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    10. Giagheddu, Marta & Papetti, Andrea, 2023. "The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Giammetti, Raffaele & Papi, Luca & Teobaldelli, Désirée & Ticchi, Davide, 2022. "The optimality of age-based lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 722-738.
    12. Gollier, Christian, 2021. "The Welfare Cost of Vaccine Misallocation, Delays and Nationalism," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 199-226, July.
    13. Josselin Thuilliez & Nouhoum Touré, 2024. "Opinions and vaccination during an epidemic," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04490900, HAL.
    14. M. Alper Çenesiz & Luís Guimarães, 2022. "COVID‐19: What if immunity wanes?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 626-664, February.

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