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Impacto del covid-19 en la actividad económica y en la incertidumbre de política económica: un enfoque de datos panel para una muestra de países de América Latina
[Impact of covid-19 on economic activity and economic policy uncertainty: a panel data approach for a sample of Latin American countries]

Author

Listed:
  • Ramírez-Orihuela, Mitzi Vania
  • Venegas-Martínez, Francisco

Abstract

Objetivo: Esta investigación examina el impacto de la pandemia de Covid-19 en la Incertidumbre de la Política Económica (EPU) y en la actividad económica en las principales economías de América Latina, específicamente en México, Brasil, Chile, Colombia y Argentina. Estas economías no sólo son las más grandes, sino también las más afectadas por la pandemia de Covid-19. Metodología: Se utiliza un modelo de datos de panel con datos diarios (enero 2019-agosto de 2021). Utilizamos las siguientes variables: índices EPU, índice de actividad económica, índice de letalidad. Resultados: Los principales hallazgos con que las economías latinoamericanas sufrieron una fuerte desaceleración en la actividad económica, afectando principalmente en el sector industrial, sector servicios, comercio al menudeo, construcción, manufactura, consumo y turismo, ocasionado por las medidas de contención implementadas por cada gobierno. Así mismo, la evidencia empírica muestra que un choque de incertidumbre tiende a reducir el nivel de actividad económica. Además, la actividad económica impacta en la incertidumbre de política económica. Por último, ante aumentos en los casos confirmados de Covid-19, se presentaron disminuciones en el índice de actividad económica para todos los países de estudio, siendo Brasil y Argentina los más afectados. // Objective: This research examines the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and economic activity in the main economies of Latin America, specifically in Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Argentina. These economies are not only the largest, but also the most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Methodology: A panel data model is used (January 2019-August 2021). We use the following variables: EPU indices, economic activity index and fatality index. Results: The main findings are that Latin American economies suffered a strong slowdown in economic activity, mainly affecting the industrial sector, services sector, retail trade, construction, manufacturing, consumption and tourism, caused by the containment measures implemented by each government. Likewise, empirical evidence shows that an uncertainty shock tends to reduce the level of economic activity. Moreover, economic activity impacts the uncertainty of economic policy. Finally, due to the increase in confirmed cases of Covid-19, there were drops in the economic activity index of all the countries in the study, with Brazil and Argentina being the most affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramírez-Orihuela, Mitzi Vania & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2024. "Impacto del covid-19 en la actividad económica y en la incertidumbre de política económica: un enfoque de datos panel para una muestra de países de América Latina [Impact of covid-19 on economic activity and economic policy uncertainty: a panel da," MPRA Paper 119668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:119668
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Semei Coronado & Jose N. Martinez & Francisco Venegas-Martinez, 2020. "Spillover effects of the US economic policy uncertainty in Latin America," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 47(2 Year 20), pages 273-293, December.
    2. Manuel Arellano & Olympia Bover, 1990. "La econometría de datos de panel," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 14(1), pages 3-45, January.
    3. H ctor F. Salazar-N ez & Francisco Venegas-Mart nez & Miguel Tinoco-Zerme o, 2020. "Impact of Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions on Economic Growth: Cointegrated Panel Data in 79 Countries Grouped by Income Level," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 218-226.
    4. Ghirelli, Corinna & Pérez, Javier J. & Urtasun, Alberto, 2021. "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America on the Spanish economy," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
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    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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