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Conflict, Growth, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau

  • Barry, Boubacar-Sid
  • Wodon, Quentin

Conflicts and political instability have been serious constraints to growth in Guinea-Bissau. Of special concern was the civil war of 1998, which lasted 11 months and led to substantial loss of life as well as to a massive decrease in GDP per capita. Based on research on the economic cost of conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa conducted by Lopez and Wodon (2005) and using a technique to identify outliers in time series and to correct the series for such outliers, this chapter estimates that GDP per capita today could have been more than 40 percent higher if there had been no conflict in 1998. In turn, one in three persons living in poverty today might not be poor had it not been for the conflict.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11112/1/MPRA_paper_11112.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11112.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Publication status: Published in Growth and Poverty Reduction: Case Studies from West Africa (edited by Quentin Wodon, published in World Bank Working Paper No. 79) (2007): pp. 111-122
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11112
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  1. Humberto Lopez & Quentin Wodon, 2005. "The Economic Impact of Armed Conflict in Rwanda," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(4), pages 586-602, December.
  2. World Bank, 2000. "Can Africa Claim the 21st Century?," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 22962, April.
  3. Gómez, Víctor & Peña, Daniel & Maravall, Agustín, 1997. "Missing observations in ARIMA models: skipping strategy versus additive outlier approach," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10576, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  4. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
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