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The Economic Impact of Armed Conflict in Rwanda

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  • Humberto Lopez
  • Quentin Wodon

Abstract

The human, social and economic costs of Rwanda's genocide have been staggering. The losses in life cannot be reversed and the psychological impact of the violence will take a long time to heal. The country has made remarkable progress over the last 10 years to get back to where it would have been without the conflict--for example, in terms of trends for basic education and health indicators such as primary enrollment and child mortality. Yet GDP per capita remains much lower than what it would have been without the genocide. The paper proposes a methodology for the estimation and correction of extreme values or outliers and estimates that per capita GDP today would probably be between 25 and 30% higher if the conflict had not taken place. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Humberto Lopez & Quentin Wodon, 2005. "The Economic Impact of Armed Conflict in Rwanda," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(4), pages 586-602, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:14:y:2005:i:4:p:586-602
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shemyakina, Olga, 2011. "The effect of armed conflict on accumulation of schooling: Results from Tajikistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 186-200, July.
    2. Guariso Andrea & Verpoorten Marijke, 2019. "Armed Conflict and Schooling in Rwanda: Digging Deeper," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-40, February.
    3. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2011. "Development and large scale violence," Discussion Papers Series 433, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    4. Olaf J. de Groot & Tilman Brück & Carlos Bozzoli, 2009. "How Many Bucks in a Bang: On the Estimation of the Economic Costs of Conflict," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 948, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Çağatay Bircan & Tilman Brück & Marc Vothknecht, 2017. "Violent conflict and inequality," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 125-144, April.
    6. Wim Naudé, 2007. "Peace, Prosperity, and Pro-Growth Entrepreneurship," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2007-02, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Hoenig, Tillman, 2018. "The Effect of Conflict on Education: Evidence from Sierra Leone," MPRA Paper 85064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Tilman Brück & Wim Naudé & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Entrepreneurship and Violent Conflict in Developing Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-028, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Hönig, Tillman, 2017. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 83302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Daniel Zaga, 2014. "Masked Development: Exploring the Hidden Benefits of the Zapatista Conflict," CFD Working Papers 08-2015, Centre for Finance and Development, The Graduate Institute.
    11. Crost, Benjamin & Felter, Joseph H. & Johnston, Patrick B., 2016. "Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence: Experimental evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 171-182.
    12. González-Rivera, Gloria & Maldonado, Javier & Ruiz, Esther, 2019. "Growth in stress," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 948-966.
    13. Iyer, Lakshmi & Santos, Indhira, 2012. "Creating jobs in South Asia's conflict zones," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6104, The World Bank.
    14. Barry, Boubacar-Sid & Gacitua-Mario, Estanislao & Wodon, Quentin, 2007. "Conflict, Livelihoods, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau: An Overview," MPRA Paper 11115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Barry, Boubacar-Sid & Wodon, Quentin, 2007. "Conflict, Growth, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau," MPRA Paper 11112, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kati Kraehnert & Tilman Brück & Michele Di Maio & Roberto Nisticò, 2019. "The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence From the Genocide in Rwanda," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 935-968, June.
    17. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Eliay & Ron P Smith, 2014. "The relationship between panel and synthetic control estimators of the effect of civil war," BCAM Working Papers 1406, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    18. Reade, Carol & Lee, Hyun-Jung, 2012. "Organizational Commitment in Time of War: Assessing the Impact and Attenuation of Employee Sensitivity to Ethnopolitical Conflict," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 85-101.
    19. McDougal, Topher L., 2017. "The Political Economy of Rural-Urban Conflict: Predation, Production, and Peripheries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198792598.
    20. TENIKUE Michel & TEQUAME Miron, 2018. "Economic and Health Impacts of the 2011 Post-Electoral Crisis in Côte d’Ivoire: Evidence from Microdata," LISER Working Paper Series 2018-03, LISER.
    21. Christian Almer & Roland Hodler, 2015. "The Economic Effects of Political Violence: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda," Department of Economics Working Papers 37/14, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    22. Brück, Tilman & Naudé, Wim & Verwimp, Philip, 2013. "Entrepreneurship and Violent Conflict in Developing Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 028, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    23. Jean Niyigaba & Daiyan Peng, 2020. "Analysis and Forecasting the Agriculture Production Sector in Rwanda," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(8), pages 1-91, August.
    24. Benjamin Crost & Joseph Felter, 2016. "Export Crops and Civil Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 228, Households in Conflict Network.

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