IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/103165.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of Brexit on UK Productivity: Synthetic Control Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Farid, Moatazbellah

Abstract

In this paper I analyse the effect of Brexit on UK labour productivity and its components using a synthetic control methodology. My results show that the Brexit vote had a negative impact on labour productivity, causing GDP per hour worked to decrease by 2.4% by 2019 in comparison to the absence of Brexit. The two components of labour productivity are GDP and hours worked. I find that the decrease in the GDP is more than the increase in hours worked per person, causing the labour productivity to decline

Suggested Citation

  • Farid, Moatazbellah, 2020. "The Effect of Brexit on UK Productivity: Synthetic Control Analysis," MPRA Paper 103165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103165
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/103165/1/MPRA_paper_102738.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/103166/9/MPRA_paper_103166.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2020. "Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.
    3. Michael Gasiorek & Ilona Serwicka & Alasdair Smith, 2019. "Which manufacturing industries and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 21-56, January.
    4. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    6. repec:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:10:p:2722-2744. is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andrew Harvey & Stephen Thiele, 2021. "Cointegration and control: Assessing the impact of events using time series data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 71-85, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Breinlich, Holger & Leromain, Elsa & Novy, Dennis & Sampson, Thomas, 2020. "Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Ana Venâncio & João Pereira dos Santos, 2021. "The effect of Brexit on British workers living in the EU," Working Papers REM 2021/0197, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Fetzer, Thiemo & Wang, Shizhuo, 2020. "Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of Brexit: Evidence up to 2019," CEPR Discussion Papers 15051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bibek Adhikari, 2022. "A Guide to Using the Synthetic Control Method to Quantify the Effects of Shocks, Policies, and Shocking Policies," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 67(1), pages 46-63, March.
    5. Idriss Fontaine & Justinien Razafindravaosolonirina, 2023. "The income loss of a political crisis: Evidence from Madagascar," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 657-681, July.
    6. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    7. Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Kaspar Wuthrich, 2020. "Protectionism and economic growth: Causal evidence from the first era of globalization," Papers 2010.02378, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    8. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    9. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Pessoa, Ana Sofia, 2024. "Adopting the euro: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Brunhart, Andreas & Geiger, Martin, 2022. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks: Goods exports and the appreciation of the Swiss Franc in 2015," EconStor Preprints 266362, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Demirci, Murat, 2023. "Youth responses to political populism: Education abroad as a step toward emigration," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 653-673.
    12. Dovern, Jonas & Frank, Johannes & Glas, Alexander & Müller, Lena Sophia & Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Peter Dreuw, 2023. "Structural time series models and synthetic controls—assessing the impact of the euro adoption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 681-725, February.
    14. Makram El-Shagi & Steven Yamarik, 2023. "Growth Effects of EU Expansion: A Penalized Synthetic Control Method," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2023/4, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    15. Ferrari, Alessandro & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2023. "Risk sharing and the adoption of the Euro," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    16. Bidisha Lahiri & Anurag Deb, 2022. "Impact of the Indian “demonetization” policy on its export performance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2799-2825, June.
    17. Murat Demirci, 2021. "Rising Political Populism and Outmigration of Youth as International Students," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2123, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    18. Echevarría, Cruz A. & Hasancebi, Serhat & García-Enríquez, Javier, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    19. Mustapha Douch & Terence Huw Edwards, 2022. "The bilateral trade effects of announcement shocks: Brexit as a natural field experiment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 305-329, March.
    20. Benjamin Born & Alexander M Dietrich & Gernot J Müller, 2021. "The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-13, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; Labour productivity; Productivity puzzle; Synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.