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Volatility Depend on Market Trades and Macro Theory

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  • Olkhov, Victor

Abstract

This paper presents probability distributions for price and returns random processes for averaging time interval Δ. These probabilities determine properties of price and returns volatility. We define statistical moments for price and returns random processes as functions of the costs and the volumes of market trades aggregated during interval Δ. These sets of statistical moments determine characteristic functionals for price and returns probability distributions. Volatilities are described by first two statistical moments. Second statistical moments are described by functions of second degree of the cost and the volumes of market trades aggregated during interval Δ. We present price and returns volatilities as functions of number of trades and second degree costs and volumes of market trades aggregated during interval Δ. These expressions support numerous results on correlations between returns volatility, number of trades and the volume of market transactions. Forecasting the price and returns volatilities depend on modeling the second degree of the costs and the volumes of market trades aggregated during interval Δ. Second degree market trades impact second degree of macro variables and expectations. Description of the second degree market trades, macro variables and expectations doubles the complexity of the current macroeconomic and financial theory.

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  • Olkhov, Victor, 2020. "Volatility Depend on Market Trades and Macro Theory," MPRA Paper 102434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:102434
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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Olkhov, 2021. "Three Remarks On Asset Pricing," Papers 2105.13903, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    2. Victor Olkhov, 2022. "Market-Based Asset Price Probability," Papers 2205.07256, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    3. Olkhov, Victor, 2020. "Price, Volatility and the Second-Order Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 102767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Olkhov, Victor, 2024. "Lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on the accuracy of forecasts of macroeconomic variables," MPRA Paper 121628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Olkhov, Victor, 2021. "To VaR, or Not to VaR, That is the Question," MPRA Paper 105458, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price and returns volatility; price-volume relations; macro theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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