IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/por/cetedp/0308.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wages and the Risk of Displacement

Author

Listed:
  • Anabela Carneiro

    (CETE, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto)

  • Pedro Portugal

    (Banco de Portugal and Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

Abstract

In this paper a simultaneous-equations model of firm closing and wage determination is developed in order to analyse how wages adjust to unfavorable shocks that raise the risk of displacement through firm closing, and to what extent a wage change affects the exit likelihood. Using a longitudinal matched worker-firm data set from Portugal, the results show that the fear of job loss generates wage concessions instead of compensating differentials. A novel result that emerges from this study is that firms with a higher incidence of minimum wage earners are more vulnerable to adverse demand shocks due to their inability to adjust wages downward. In fact, minimum wage restrictions were seen to increase the failure rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Anabela Carneiro & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Wages and the Risk of Displacement," CEF.UP Working Papers 0308, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    • Handle: RePEc:por:cetedp:0308
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fep.up.pt/investigacao/cete/papers/dp0308.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Margolis, 1999. "Worker Displacement in France," Post-Print halshs-00370401, HAL.
    2. David N. Margolis, 1999. "Part-Year Employment, Slow Reemployment, and Earnings Losses: The Case of Worker Displacement in France," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Creation and Analysis of Employer-Employee Matched Data, pages 375-416, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Jacobson, Louis S & LaLonde, Robert J & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1993. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 685-709, September.
    4. Evans, David S, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 567-581, June.
    5. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro & Guimaraes, Paulo, 1995. "The survival of new plants: Start-up conditions and post-entry evolution," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 459-481, December.
    6. Harris, R. I. D. & Hassaszadeh, P., 2002. "The impact of ownership changes and age effects on plant exits in UK manufacturing, 1974-1995," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 309-317, May.
    7. Mark E. Doms & J . Bradford Jensen, 1998. "Comparing Wages, Skills, and Productivity between Domestically and Foreign-Owned Manufacturing Establishments in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting, pages 235-258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Blanchflower, David G, 1991. "Fear, Unemployment and Pay Flexibility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 483-496, May.
    9. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts, 1990. "Wages and The Rist of Plant Closings," Working Papers 90-6, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    10. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1988. "Plant Closings and the Value of the Firm," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 580-586, November.
    11. Pedro Portugal & José Mata, 2001. "The Survival of New Domestic and Foreign Owned Firms," Working Papers w200101, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
    13. John T. Addison & Lutz Bellmann & Arnd Kölling, 2004. "Works Councils and Plant Closings in Germany," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 125-148, March.
    14. Kumar, M S, 1985. "Growth, Acquisition Activity and Firm Size: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 327-338, March.
    15. repec:crs:wpaper:9904 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Stevens, Ann Huff, 1997. "Persistent Effects of Job Displacement: The Importance of Multiple Job Losses," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 165-188, January.
    17. J. Bradford Jensen & Andrew B Bernard, 2002. "The Deaths of Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 02-15, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    18. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-245, September.
    19. Pedro Portugal & Olivier Blanchard, 2001. "What Hides Behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 187-207, March.
    20. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, April.
    21. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    22. Stephen Machin, 1995. "Plant Closures and Unionization in British Establishments," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 55-68, March.
    23. Hall, Bronwyn H, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 583-606, June.
    24. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U. S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 671-698.
    25. Cooper, Arnold C. & Gimeno-Gascon, F. Javier & Woo, Carolyn Y., 1994. "Initial human and financial capital as predictors of new venture performance," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 371-395, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gielen, Anne C. & van Ours, Jan C., 2010. "Layoffs, quits and wage negotiations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 108-111, November.
    2. Uwe Jirjahn, 2012. "Non-union worker representation and the closure of establishments: German evidence on the role of moderating factors," Economic and Industrial Democracy, Department of Economic History, Uppsala University, Sweden, vol. 33(1), pages 5-27, February.
    3. Anabela Carneiro & José Varejão, 2012. "Establishment Turnover and the Evolution of Wage Inequality," CEF.UP Working Papers 1202, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Gielen, A. C. & van Ours, J.C., 2006. "Why do Worker-Firm Matches Dissolve?," Other publications TiSEM 8c99a292-9f34-4ce8-8fd9-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Petri Böckerman & Tuomas Kosonen & Terhi Maczulskij, 2018. "Job Displacement, Inter-Regional Mobility and Long-Term Earnings," Working Papers 323, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    6. Kevin McKinney & Lars Vilhuber, 2006. "Using linked employer-employee data to investigate the speed of adjustments in downsizing firms," Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Technical Papers 2006-03, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Verónica Alaimo & Mariano Bosch & David S. Kaplan & Carmen Pagés & Laura Ripani, 2015. "Jobs for Growth," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 90977, February.
    8. Huttunen, Kristiina & Moen, Jarle & Salvanes, Kjell G., 2006. "How Destructive Is Creative Destruction? The Costs of Worker Displacement," IZA Discussion Papers 2316, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Luiz A. Esteves, 2008. "Risk of Firm Closure and Wages in Brazil: Compensating Wage Di erentials or Bargaining Concessions?," Working Papers 0077, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    10. Schwerdt, Guido, 2011. "Labor turnover before plant closure: "Leaving the sinking ship" vs. "Captain throwing ballast overboard"," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 93-101, January.
    11. Pedro Portugal, 2006. "Wage Setting in the Portuguese Labor Market: A Microeconomic Approach," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard I.D. Harris & Qian Cher Li, "undated". "Export-market dynamics and the probability of firm closure: Evidence for the UK," Working Papers 2008_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Spletzer, James R, 2000. "The Contribution of Establishment Births and Deaths to Employment Growth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 113-126, January.
    3. Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2007. "Entrepreneurship and the process of firms’ entry, survival and growth," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 16(3), pages 455-488, June.
    4. Bergner, Sören Martin & Bräutigam, Rainer & Evers, Maria Theresia & Spengel, Christoph, 2017. "The use of SME tax incentives in the European Union," ZEW Discussion Papers 17-006, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Sule Ozler & Erol Taymaz, 2004. "Does foreign ownership matter for survival and growth? Dynamics of competition and foreign direct investment," ERC Working Papers 0406, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Mar 2004.
    6. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Tomlin, KaSaundra, 2001. "Size and growth of Japanese plants in the United States," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 931-952, May.
    7. Emmanuelle Fortune-Devlaminckx & Josef Haunschmied, 2010. "Diversity of firm’s life cycle adapted from the firm’s technology investment decision," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 477-489, December.
    8. D.B. Audretsch & L. Klomp & E. Santarelli & A.R. Thurik, 2004. "Gibrat's Law: Are the Services Different?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 24(3), pages 301-324, May.
    9. Emmanuelle Fauchart & Max Keilbach, 2009. "Testing a model of exploration and exploitation as innovation strategies," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 257-272, October.
    10. Sleuwaegen, Leo & Goedhuys, Micheline, 2002. "Growth of firms in developing countries, evidence from Cote d'Ivoire," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 117-135, June.
    11. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo, 2008. "Survival of New Exporters in Developing Countries: Does it Matter How They Diversify?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2494, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Marco Vivarelli, 2013. "Is entrepreneurship necessarily good? Microeconomic evidence from developed and developing countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 22(6), pages 1453-1495, December.
    13. Chen, Ming-Yuan, 2002. "Survival duration of plants: Evidence from the US petroleum refining industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 517-555, April.
    14. Dinh, Thi Thanh Binh, 2014. "Determinants to the existence of foreign firms in Vietnam," Papers 943, World Trade Institute.
    15. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2008. "Survival of New Exporters in Developing Countries: Does it Matter How They Diversify?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9291, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Juan Máñez-Castillejo & Juan Sanchis-Llopis, 2008. "Does a “survival-by-exportingâ€\x9D effect for SMEs exist?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 81-104, March.
    17. Colombo, Massimo G. & Delmastro, Marco, 2001. "Technology use and plant closure1," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 21-34, January.
    18. Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2002. "The Post-entry Size Adjustment of New small Firms," LEM Papers Series 2002/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    19. Cefis, Elena & Marsili, Orietta, 2006. "Survivor: The role of innovation in firms' survival," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 626-641, June.
    20. Silviano Esteve Pérez & Fabio Pieri & Diego Rodriguez, 2015. "Age and productivity as determinants of firm survival over the product life cycle," Working Papers 1502, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wages; Displacement Risk; Concessions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:por:cetedp:0308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Bonanca (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fepuppt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.