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How Brexit affects European Union power distribution

Author

Listed:
  • László Á. Kóczy

    (Óbuda University)

Abstract

The possible exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union will have profound economic and political effects. Here we look at a particular aspect, the power distribution in the Council of the Euro- pean Union. Since the Lisbon treaty the exit does not require new negotiations as the success of a voting initiative only depends on the number and total population of the supporting member states. Using the Shapley-Shubik power index we calculate the member states' pow- ers with and without the United Kingdom and update earlier power forecasts using the Eurostat's latest population projections. There is a remarkably sharp relation between population size and the change in power: Brexit increases the largest members', while decreases the smallest ones' powers.

Suggested Citation

  • László Á. Kóczy, 2016. "How Brexit affects European Union power distribution," Working Paper Series 1601, Óbuda University, Keleti Faculty of Business and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:pkk:wpaper:1601
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Philip D. Grech, 2021. "Power in the Council of the EU: organizing theory, a new index, and Brexit," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 56(2), pages 223-258, February.
    2. D'ora Gr'eta Petr'oczy & Mark Francis Rogers & L'aszl'o 'A. K'oczy, 2018. "Brexit: The Belated Threat," Papers 1808.05142, arXiv.org.
    3. Luca Alfieri & Nino Kokashvili, 2020. "Financial Safety Nets In East Asia And Europe: A Political Economy Assessment," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 121, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities

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