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Vulnerability, Shocks and Persistence of Poverty - Estimates for Semi-Arid Rural South India

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  • Katsushi Imai
  • Raghav Gaiha

Abstract

This paper focuses on vulnerability of rural households to poverty when a negative crop shock occurs. Of particular concern is the possibilty of some sections experiencing long spells of poverty as a consequence of such shocks. The analysis is based on the ICRISAT panel survey of households in a semi-arid region in south India during 1975-84. Using alternative specifications that take into account direct effects of crop shocks as well as their indirect effects through asset adjustment, an assessment of vulnerability of different groups of households (e.g. classified on the basis of caste affiliation) is carried out. Whether transfers of land and non-land assets would reduce significantly their vulnerability is also examined. A reorientation of anti-poverty strategy is necessary to avoid welfare losses from negative crop shocks that are frequent and occasionally large.

Suggested Citation

  • Katsushi Imai & Raghav Gaiha, 2002. "Vulnerability, Shocks and Persistence of Poverty - Estimates for Semi-Arid Rural South India," Economics Series Working Papers 128, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alderman, H. & Paxson, C.H., 1992. "Do the Poor Insure? A Synthesis of the Literature on Risk and Consumption in Developing Countries," Papers 164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    2. Neil McCulloch & Bob Baulch, 2000. "Simulating the impact of policy upon chronic and transitory poverty in rural Pakistan," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 100-130.
    3. Morduch, Jonathan, 1998. "Poverty, economic growth, and average exit time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 385-390, June.
    4. World Bank, 2001. "Risk Management in South Asia : A Poverty Focused Approach," World Bank Other Operational Studies 15449, The World Bank.
    5. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Md. Shafiul Azam & Katsushi S. Imai, 2009. "Vulnerability and Poverty in Bangladesh," ASARC Working Papers 2009-02, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    2. Pasquale Scaramozzino, 2006. "Measuring Vulnerability to Food Insecurity," Working Papers 06-12, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    3. R Gaiha & K Imai & M A Nandhi, 2005. "Millennium Development Goal of Halving Poverty in Asia and the Pacific Region: Progress, Prospects and Priorities," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0507, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Bijan Khazai & Mirjam Merz & Carola Schulz & Dietmar Borst, 2013. "An integrated indicator framework for spatial assessment of industrial and social vulnerability to indirect disaster losses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 145-167, June.
    5. Thorat, Amit & Vanneman, Reeve & Desai, Sonalde & Dubey, Amaresh, 2017. "Escaping and Falling into Poverty in India Today," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 413-426.
    6. Raghbendra Jha, 2006. "Vulnerability and Natural Disasters in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and the Kyrgyz Republic," Departmental Working Papers 2006-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    7. Zereyesus, Yacob & Tsiboe, Francis & Embaye, Weldensie, 2016. "The Effect of Shocks and Remittances on Household’s Vulnerability to Food Poverty: Evidence from Bangladesh," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 236199, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Md. Shafiul Azam & Katsushi S. Imai, 2012. "Measuring Households' Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks – the case of Bangladesh," Discussion Paper Series DP2012-02, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    9. Manoj K. Pandey, 2013. "Elderly's Health Shocks and Household's Ex-ante Poverty in India," ASARC Working Papers 2013-01, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    10. Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2010. "Market and climatic risks and farmers' investment in productive assets under the Second Fadama Development Project in Nigeria:," IFPRI discussion papers 1033, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Tomoki Fujii, 2016. "Concepts and measurement of vulnerability to poverty and other issues: a review of literature," Chapters,in: The Asian ‘Poverty Miracle’, chapter 3, pages 53-83 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Raghbendra Jha, 2006. "Vulnerability of Consumption Growth in Rural India," ASARC Working Papers 2006-04, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    13. María Ibarrarán & Matthias Ruth & Sanjana Ahmad & Marisa London, 2009. "Climate change and natural disasters: macroeconomic performance and distributional impacts," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 549-569, June.
    14. Romer Lovendal, Christian & Knowles, Marco, 2006. "Tomorrow's Hunger: A Framework for Analysing Vulnerability to Food Security," WIDER Working Paper Series 119, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. R. Radhakrishna & K. Hanumantha Rao & C. Ravi & B. Sambi Reddy, 2006. "Estimation and determinants of chronic poverty in India: An Alternative approach," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2006-007, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    16. Manoj K. Pandey, 2009. "On Ageing, Health and Poverty in Rural India," ASARC Working Papers 2009-14, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    17. R Gaiha & K Imai, 2005. "A Review of the Employment Guarantee Scheme in India," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0513, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    18. Villa, Juan M. & Nino-Zarazua, Miguel, 2014. "Poverty dynamics and programme graduation from social protection: A transitional model for Mexico's Oportunidades programme," WIDER Working Paper Series 109, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Thapa, Ganesh & Gaiha, Raghav Gaiha, 1. "Food Security in Asia and the Pacific: The Role of Smallholders," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 9(1).
    20. Katsushi Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Woojin Kang, 2011. "Vulnerability and poverty dynamics in Vietnam," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(25), pages 3603-3618.
    21. R Gaiha & K Imai, 2006. "Vulnerability and poverty in rural India-estimates for rural south India," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0602, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    22. Pandey, Manoj K., 2009. "On ageing, health and poverty in rural India," MPRA Paper 15932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Gaiha, Raghav & Imai, Katsushi, 2008. "Measuring Vulnerability and Poverty: Estimates for Rural India," WIDER Working Paper Series 040, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    24. Thankom Arun & Katsushi Imai & Frances Sinha, 2006. "Does the Microfinance Reduce Poverty in India? Propensity Score Matching based on a National-level Household Data," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0625, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    25. Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anurag Sharma, 2006. "Mean Consumption, Poverty and Inequality in Rural India in the Sixtieth Round of the National Sample Survey," ASARC Working Papers 2006-11, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    shocks; dynamics; vulnerability; transfers; poverty;

    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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