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Vulnerability, Shocks and Persistence of Poverty - Estimates for Semi-Arid Rural South India


  • Imai, Katsushi

    (University of Oxford)

  • Raghav Gaiha


This paper focuses on vulnerability of rural households to poverty when a negative crop shock occurs based on the ICRISAT panel data in India during 1975-84. Of particular concern is the possibility of some sections experiencing long spells of poverty as a consequence of such shocks. Using alternative specifications that take into account both direct and indirect effects of crop shocks, an assessment of vulnerability of different groups (e.g. caste affiliations) of households and policy simulations on land and non-land asset transfers are carried out. A reorientation of anti-poverty strategy is necessary to avoid welfare losses from the crop shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Imai, Katsushi & Raghav Gaiha, 2003. "Vulnerability, Shocks and Persistence of Poverty - Estimates for Semi-Arid Rural South India," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 111, Royal Economic Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:111

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Alderman, H. & Paxson, C.H., 1992. "Do the Poor Insure? A Synthesis of the Literature on Risk and Consumption in Developing Countries," Papers 164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    2. Neil McCulloch & Bob Baulch, 2000. "Simulating the impact of policy upon chronic and transitory poverty in rural Pakistan," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 100-130.
    3. Morduch, Jonathan, 1998. "Poverty, economic growth, and average exit time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 385-390, June.
    4. World Bank, 2001. "Risk Management in South Asia : A Poverty Focused Approach," World Bank Other Operational Studies 15449, The World Bank.
    5. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    More about this item


    shocks; dynamics; vulnerability; transfers; poverty;

    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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