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Optimal Bonus Points in the Australian Football League

Author

Listed:
  • Liam J. A. Lenten

    (School of Economics and Finance, La Trobe University)

  • Niven Winchester

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

Abstract

Bonus point systems are a popular tournament design feature in some sports. We consider a bonus point system for the Australian Football League (AFL). In this paper, we utilise league points as a measure of team strength in a prediction model and choose the allocation of points to maximise prediction accuracy. For AFL data extending over seasons 1997-2008, we determine a bonus points system that does a better job at revealing strong teams than the current allocation of league points. We conclude that there is considerable scope for the introduction bonus points to improve tournament design in the AFL.

Suggested Citation

  • Liam J. A. Lenten & Niven Winchester, 2009. "Optimal Bonus Points in the Australian Football League," Working Papers 0903, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:0903
    as

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    File URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/research/otago077119.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2008. "Unbalanced Schedules And The Estimation Of Competitive Balance In The Scottish Premier League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 488-508, September.
    2. Ross Booth, 2004. "The Economics Of Achieving Competitive Balance In The Australian Football League, 1897–2004," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 23(4), pages 325-344, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lenten, Liam J.A. & Smith, Aaron C.T. & Boys, Noel, 2018. "Evaluating an alternative draft pick allocation policy to reduce ‘tanking’ in the Australian Football League," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 315-320.
    2. Wright, Mike, 2014. "OR analysis of sporting rules – A survey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 1-8.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sport; Predictions; Estimation; Tournament Design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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