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Global Shocks and the Japanese Economy:Structural Changes in the 1990s

Author

Listed:
  • Jun-ichi Shinkai

    (Specially Appointed Researcher, Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP))

  • Akira Kohsaka

    (Professor, Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP))

Abstract

This paper analyzes how those global shocks as foreign business cycles and exchange rate realignments affect the Japanese economy and whether there are structural changes in the transmission mechanism of these shocks in the recent period by using a VAR model. This paper finds that, since the 1990s the impact of exchange rate changes on the Japanese economy has become smaller and/or insignificant. But the spillover effect of business cycles in U.S. and Europe turns out to have become larger and that from East Asia, once being small and insignificant, become large and significant in the 2000s. To sum up, the Japanese economy has appeared to re-couple with the world and regional business cycles in the recent period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun-ichi Shinkai & Akira Kohsaka, 2009. "Global Shocks and the Japanese Economy:Structural Changes in the 1990s," OSIPP Discussion Paper 09E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
  • Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:09e008
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    File URL: http://www.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp/archives/DP/2009/DP2009E008.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    2. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    3. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    4. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    5. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fukunari KIMURA, 2006. "International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia: Eighteen Facts, Mechanics, and Policy Implications," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 326-344.
    7. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 99-126.
    8. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 99-126.
    9. Jianhuai Shi, 2006. "Are Currency Appreciations Contractionary in China?," NBER Working Papers 12551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global shocks; de-coupling; expenditure switching;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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