IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/thesis/dy76e_v2.html

The Future of Blockchain Technology in Business and Management - A Delphi Study Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Ikram, Can A.H.

Abstract

Research has shown that blockchain technology will impact business and management in the future. Predictions are made for the impact and likelihood in specific business segments. This study aims to test and validate earlier forecasts and explore new timely predictions. The research questions are about the present impact, the current state of implementation, probability of future implementation, new forecasts and fulfillment time. The Delphi method for graduate research was used with a panel consisting of Executive Masters of Business Administration (MBA) students, recent MBA graduates and other subject matter experts who have recently completed a university development program as a Manger for Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology. The Delphi study findings indicate high impact and likelihood predictions in currencies and digital certificates and low impact and likelihood in employee voice mechanisms and performance management systems. The findings were consistent with earlier findings. However, the research showed higher variance in other business segments. The Delphi study generated a new set of businesses expected to be affected in the future. Further research is recommended into blockchain technology being considered a disruptive innovation and a force of creative destruction. It is recommended to repeat this Delphi study in 7 years, measuring the diffusion and reevaluating the development of blockchain technology for academia and practice. This Delphi study concludes that blockchain technology will continue to grow and will usher in change in various segments of business and management in the next 7.86 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ikram, Can A.H., 2021. "The Future of Blockchain Technology in Business and Management - A Delphi Study Revisited," Thesis Commons dy76e_v2, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:thesis:dy76e_v2
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/dy76e_v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/6a2c218a35c268d05930a378/
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/dy76e_v2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David M. Boje & J. Keith Murnighan, 1982. "Group Confidence Pressures in Iterative Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(10), pages 1187-1196, October.
    2. Rainer Alt & Erik Wende, 2020. "Blockchain technology in energy markets – An interview with the European Energy Exchange," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 30(2), pages 325-330, June.
    3. Wagner, Eric & Bruggink, Diederik & Benevelli, Alessia, 2021. "Preparing euro payments for the future: A blueprint for a digital euro," Journal of Payments Strategy & Systems, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 15(2), pages 165-187, June.
    4. Hissu Hyvärinen & Marten Risius & Gustav Friis, 2017. "A Blockchain-Based Approach Towards Overcoming Financial Fraud in Public Sector Services," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 59(6), pages 441-456, December.
    5. Michael R Czinkota & Ilkka A Ronkainen, 1997. "International Business and Trade in the Next Decade: Report from a Delphi Study," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 28(4), pages 827-844, December.
    6. Jamie Berryhill & Théo Bourgery & Angela Hanson, 2018. "Blockchains Unchained: Blockchain Technology and its Use in the Public Sector," OECD Working Papers on Public Governance 28, OECD Publishing.
    7. Tiberius, Victor & Hirth, Stefanie, 2019. "Impacts of digitization on auditing: A Delphi study for Germany," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    8. Christidis, Konstantinos & Sikeridis, Dimitrios & Wang, Yun & Devetsikiotis, Michael, 2021. "A framework for designing and evaluating realistic blockchain-based local energy markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    9. Jesse Yli-Huumo & Deokyoon Ko & Sujin Choi & Sooyong Park & Kari Smolander, 2016. "Where Is Current Research on Blockchain Technology?—A Systematic Review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-27, October.
    10. Dodd, Nigel, 2018. "The social life of Bitcoin," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69229, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Clayton M. Christensen & Rory McDonald & Elizabeth J. Altman & Jonathan E. Palmer, 2018. "Disruptive Innovation: An Intellectual History and Directions for Future Research," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(7), pages 1043-1078, November.
    12. Frizzo-Barker, Julie & Chow-White, Peter A. & Adams, Philippa R. & Mentanko, Jennifer & Ha, Dung & Green, Sandy, 2020. "Blockchain as a disruptive technology for business: A systematic review," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Steve Huckle & Martin White, 2016. "Socialism and the Blockchain," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-15, October.
    14. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
    15. Geist, Monica R., 2010. "Using the Delphi method to engage stakeholders: A comparison of two studies," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 147-154, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoph Markmann & Alexander Spickermann & Heiko A. von der Gracht & Alexander Brem, 2021. "Improving the question formulation in Delphi‐like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), March.
    2. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    3. Sharma, Gagan Deep & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Chopra, Ritika & Dev, Dhairya, 2024. "Past, present, and future of block-chain in finance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Prommer, Lisa & Tiberius, Victor & Kraus, Sascha, 2020. "Exploring the future of startup leadership development," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    5. Alyami, Saleh. H. & Rezgui, Yacine & Kwan, Alan, 2013. "Developing sustainable building assessment scheme for Saudi Arabia: Delphi consultation approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 43-54.
    6. Chao, Ching-Cheng & Yu, Po-Cheng, 2013. "Quantitative evaluation model of air cargo competitiveness and comparative analysis of major Asia-Pacific airports," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 318-326.
    7. Gajendra Liyanaarachchi & Giampaolo Viglia & Fidan Kurtaliqi, 2024. "Addressing challenges of digital transformation with modified blockchain," Post-Print hal-04440365, HAL.
    8. Sun, Yi & Jiang, Shiqing & Jia, Wanjiao & Wang, Yu, 2022. "Blockchain as a cutting-edge technology impacting business: A systematic literature review perspective," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(10).
    9. Belton, Ian & Wright, George & Sissons, Aileen & Bolger, Fergus & Crawford, Megan M. & Hamlin, Iain & Taylor Browne Lūka, Courtney & Vasilichi, Alexandrina, 2021. "Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    10. Rainer Alt & Max Gräser, 2025. "Distributed ledger technology," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 35(1), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Nadine Kathrin Ostern, 2020. "Blockchain in the IS research discipline: a discussion of terminology and concepts," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 30(2), pages 195-210, June.
    12. Laura Studen & Victor Tiberius, 2020. "Social Media, Quo Vadis? Prospective Development and Implications," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, August.
    13. Aldossary, Naief A. & Rezgui, Yacine & Kwan, Alan, 2015. "Consensus-based low carbon domestic design framework for sustainable homes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 417-432.
    14. Belton, Ian & MacDonald, Alice & Wright, George & Hamlin, Iain, 2019. "Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 72-82.
    15. Wilfrid Azan & Yuan Li, 2023. "Scientific knowledge production of blockchain: A bibliometric and lexicometric review," Post-Print hal-04180386, HAL.
    16. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    17. Shahbaz Khan & Abid Haleem & Zafar Husain & Daniel Samson & R. D. Pathak, 2023. "Barriers to blockchain technology adoption in supply chains: the case of India," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 668-683, June.
    18. Payam Hanafizadeh & Maryam Alipour, 2025. "Theory borrowing in emerging technology-oriented research contexts: on the example of blockchain technology," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 105-155, January.
    19. Silvia Semenzin & David Rozas & Samer Hassan, 2022. "Blockchain-based application at a governmental level: disruption or illusion? The case of Estonia [A systematic analysis of applications of blockchain in healthcare]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 41(3), pages 386-401.
    20. Daim, Tugrul & Lai, Kuei Kuei & Yalcin, Haydar & Alsoubie, Fayez & Kumar, Vimal, 2020. "Forecasting technological positioning through technology knowledge redundancy: Patent citation analysis of IoT, cybersecurity, and Blockchain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:thesis:dy76e_v2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://thesiscommons.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.