United but Divided. The Segmented Rally in a Polarized Society in Wartime

Interest in the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon of public opinion has increased in studies on reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In the same period, a separate research line has focused on political polarization and the strengthening of radical right parties in many countries. This study brings these two lines together by asking how public opinion in deeply polarized countries responds to violent international conflicts, which, under lesser polarization, would have likely led most citizens to close ranks behind the government and its war policy. To answer this question, we analyzed original panel data collected in Israel before and after the October 7 massacre and during Israel’s retaliation in Gaza. The findings reveal mixed patterns that we label “segmented rally:” The vast majority supported the war and trusted the security forces, but only a minority trusted the government and the prime minister. The analysis identified distinct sets of mechanisms of opinion formation. Rallying behind the war and security forces was motivated by feelings of threat, humiliation, and rage. In contrast, trust or mistrust of the government and the PM depended on whether respondents blamed the government or anti-government protests for the security crisis, an assessment driven by respondents’ preexisting views about the government’s “judicial reform” initiative. The paper concludes by discussing the mutual impacts of polarization and public reactions to crises.