IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/ek5t6_v1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Technology Stagnation

Author

Listed:
  • Takahashi, Yuta

    (Hitotsubashi University)

  • Takayama, Naoki

    (Hitotsubashi University)

Abstract

In the last two decades, economic growth has slowed down across developed countries. This paper investigates the role of technology specific to durable consumption and equipment goods in this global slowdown. We present evidence that technological stagnation in these sectors has prevailed globally over the past two decades. Using an extended Ramsey growth model as an accounting device, we find that this global technology stagnation can substantially account for the economic slowdown across developed countries through the capital deepening effect, rather than TFP.

Suggested Citation

  • Takahashi, Yuta & Takayama, Naoki, 2025. "Global Technology Stagnation," SocArXiv ek5t6_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ek5t6_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ek5t6_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/684a0c381b1ba8f72fab8268/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/ek5t6_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ernest Liu & Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2022. "Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 193-221, January.
    2. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226304557 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Aum, Sangmin & Lee, Sang Yoon (Tim) & Shin, Yongseok, 2018. "Computerizing industries and routinizing jobs: Explaining trends in aggregate productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-21.
    4. Hulten, Charles R, 1992. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change Is Embodied in Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 964-980, September.
    5. Hugo Hopenhayn & Julian Neira & Rish Singhania, 2022. "From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1879-1914, July.
    6. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 125-152, August.
    7. Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1, October.
    8. Queralto, Albert, 2020. "A model of slow recoveries from financial crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-25.
    9. Charles R. Hulten, 1992. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change is Embodied in Capital," NBER Working Papers 3971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 2001. "Trade in capital goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1195-1235.
    2. Greenwood, Jeremy & Krusell, Per, 2007. "Growth accounting with investment-specific technological progress: A discussion of two approaches," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1300-1310, May.
    3. L. Ngai & Roberto Samaniego, 2009. "Mapping prices into productivity in multisector growth models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 183-204, September.
    4. Plutarchos Sakellaris & Daniel J. Wilson, 2004. "Quantifying Embodied Technological Change," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, January.
    5. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hornstein, Andreas & Krusell, Per & Violante, Giovanni L., 2005. "The Effects of Technical Change on Labor Market Inequalities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1275-1370, Elsevier.
    7. Voon, Jan P. & Chen, Edward K. Y., 2003. "Contributions of capital stock quality improvement to economic growth: the case of Hong Kong," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 631-644, August.
    8. Julieta Caunedo & David Jaume & Elisa Keller, 2023. "Occupational Exposure to Capital-Embodied Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(6), pages 1642-1685, June.
    9. Jorge Durán & Omar Licandro, 2025. "Is the output growth rate in NIPA a welfare measure?," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(665), pages 119-143.
    10. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1992. "Macroeconomic Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," Papers 527, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    11. Raouf Boucekkine & David de La Croix & Omar Licandro, 2011. "Vintage capital theory: Three breakthroughs," Working Papers halshs-00599074, HAL.
    12. Per Krusell, 1997. "Quality change in the CPI - commentary," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 107-111.
    13. André A. Hofman, 2000. "The Economic Development of Latin America in the Twentieth Century," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1534.
    14. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David, 2003. "Information technologies, embodiment and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2007-2034.
    15. Molinari, Benedetto & Rodríguez, Jesús & Torres, José L., 2013. "Growth and technological progress in selected Pacific countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 60-71.
    16. Hasan Bakhshi & Jens Larsen, 2001. "Investment-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 49-80, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2008. "Endogenous depreciation, mismeasurement of aggregate capital, and the productivity slowdown," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 513-522, March.
    18. Jagjit S. Chadha & Issam Samiri, 2022. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Productivity," Working Papers 030, The Productivity Institute.
    19. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "Accounting for Growth," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 179-224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Bednarek, Ziemowit, 2016. "Pure technology gaps and production predictability," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 39-50.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ek5t6_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.