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The Decarbonization Bargain: How the Decarbonizable Sector Shapes Climate Politics

Author

Listed:
  • Kupzok, Nils

    (Columbia University)

  • Nahm, Jonas

Abstract

Political scientists conceptualize climate politics as a distributive struggle between emerging green and incumbent fossil coalitions. We argue that, although this conceptualization is historically accurate, a dichotomous understanding no longer fully explains conflicts over climate policy. Importantly, it misses a group of industries that are central to recent policy progress: the decarbonizable sector. Decarbonizable industries, such as automakers or energy-intensive manufacturers, have long been part of fossil coalitions but can develop new sources of competitiveness through decarbonization. This makes them receptive to a bargain: agreeing to meet climate goals in exchange for policies that support their decarbonization, especially fiscal policies that partially fund or de-risk their business transitions. We establish this argument using an original measurement of the size of the decarbonizable sector and corroborate our findings through case studies of green spending policies in the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

Suggested Citation

  • Kupzok, Nils & Nahm, Jonas, 2024. "The Decarbonization Bargain: How the Decarbonizable Sector Shapes Climate Politics," SocArXiv 26frk_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:26frk_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/26frk_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. McNeil, Andrew & Barnes, Lucy, 2025. "The environment–economic growth trade-off: does support for environmental protection depend on its economic consequences?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Gabor, Daniela & Braun, Ben, 2025. "Green macrofinancial regimes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126904, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Luca Cigna & Donato Di Carlo & Niccolò Durazzi, 2026. "The Comparative Political Economy of the Green Transition: Economic Specializations and Skills Regimes in Europe," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 544-559, April.
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    6. Evro, Solomon & Alamooti, Moones & Tomomewo, Olusegun S., 2026. "Quantifying the global energy transition: A policy-ready framework linking renewable deployment and emissions outcomes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    7. Martin B. Carstensen & Niccolo Durazzi & Patrick Emmenegger & Jane Gingrich, 2026. "Meeting the Twin Challenge in Times of Labor Shortage: How Modern Societies Promote Future Skills for the Digital and Green Transitions," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 471-481, April.
    8. Timur Ergen & Luuk Schmitz, 2025. "Picking Losers: Climate Change and Managed Decline in the European Union," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 383-398, April.
    9. Benedikt Bender & Daniel Kinderman, 2026. "Green Subsidies and the Promotion of Eco‐Social Policy in Germany and the United States," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 372-390, April.
    10. Kupzok, Nils & Nahm, Jonas, 2025. "Green Macrofinancial Bargains: How Economic Interests Enable and Limit Climate Action," SocArXiv d6p9h, Center for Open Science.
    11. repec:osf:socarx:4pkv8_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Milan Babić & Daniel Mertens, 2025. "Decarbonization under geoeconomic distress? Energy shocks, carbon lock‐ins, and Germany's pathway toward net zero," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 448-468, April.
    13. Trachtman, Samuel & Inal, Irem & Meckling, Jonas, 2025. "Building winning climate coalitions: Evidence from U.S. states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    14. Olivia B. Quinn & Leah C. Stokes, 2026. "The politics of American clean energy and climate policy: Why the Inflation Reduction Act passed," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 179(3), pages 1-24, March.

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