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Valuing the Future: Changing Time Horizons and Policy Preferences

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  • Gazmararian, Alexander F.

Abstract

The short time horizons of citizens is a prominent explanation for why governments fail to tackle significant long-term public policy problems. Actual evidence of the influence of time horizons is mixed, complicated by the difficulty of determining how individuals' attitudes would differ if they were more concerned about the future. I approach this challenge by leveraging a personal experience that leads people to place more value on the future: parenthood. Using a matched difference-in-differences design with panel data, I compare new parents with otherwise similar individuals and find that parenthood increases support for addressing climate change by 4.3 percentage points. Falsification tests and two survey experiments suggest that longer time horizons explain part of this shift in support. Not only are scholars right to emphasize the role of individual time horizons, but changing valuations of the future offer a new way to understand how policy preferences evolve.

Suggested Citation

  • Gazmararian, Alexander F., 2024. "Valuing the Future: Changing Time Horizons and Policy Preferences," OSF Preprints 2m9fy, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:2m9fy
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/2m9fy
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