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Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand

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  • Nabil I. Al-Najjar
  • Luciano De Castro

Abstract

A preference is invariant with respect to a transformation tau if its ranking of acts is unaffected by a reshuffling of the states under tau. We show that any invariant preference must be parametric: there is a unique sufficient set of parameters such that the preference ranks acts according to their expected utility given the parameters. This property holds for all non-trivial preferences, provided only that they are reflexive, transitive, monotone, continuous and mixture linear.

Suggested Citation

  • Nabil I. Al-Najjar & Luciano De Castro, 2010. "Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand," Discussion Papers 1529, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:nwu:cmsems:1529
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Nabil I. Al-Najjar & Luciano De Castro, 2010. "Observability and “Second-Order Acts"," Discussion Papers 1531, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
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