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Hempel, Good and Bayes

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  • Itzhak Gilboa

Abstract

This paper analyzes some decision/belief paradoxes from a Bayesian viewpoint, focusing on Hempel's "paradox of confirmation" and Good's variation of it. It is shown that a straightforward Bayesian analysis revolves the paradoxes discussed. These exampmles are used to support the view tha twhat the Bayesian paradigm does best is to provide a coherent and intuitive representation of belief.

Suggested Citation

  • Itzhak Gilboa, 1993. "Hempel, Good and Bayes," Discussion Papers 1045, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:nwu:cmsems:1045
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    File URL: http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/research/math/papers/1045.pdf
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    1. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1995. "Case-Based Decision Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 605-639.
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    Cited by:

    1. Enriqueta Aragones & Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2003. "Accuracy vs. Simplicity: A Complex Trade-Off," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 564.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    2. Karni, Edi, 2006. "Subjective expected utility theory without states of the world," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 325-342, June.

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