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The New Monetary Policy Revolution: Advice and Dissent

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  • Philip Turner

Abstract

Central banks have undertaken a revolution in monetary policy. They reluctantly abandoned conventional wisdom designed to keep them out of political trouble. This paper looks at this revolution through the lens of the divergent perspectives of the IMF and the BIS. The Jeremiahs predicted this revolution would fail to reduce unemployment and lead only to financial ruin. The Jeremiahs were proved wrong on both counts. Radical whatever-it-takes monetary expansion rescued a depressed world economy. Regulatory reform kept financial risks in check. Because central banks now have two distinct monetary policy instruments - their balance sheet as well as the policy interest rate - monetary policy may have financial stability as an objective in addition to its traditional macroeconomic one. The questions for 2021 and beyond are two. The first is: if the mix of large balance sheets, a sudden jump in government debt and yet-to-be-determined regulatory failures creates new financial stability or macroeconomic risks, what should central banks do? The second is: will governments let them?

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Turner, 2021. "The New Monetary Policy Revolution: Advice and Dissent," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Occasional Papers 60, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesro:60
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Financial Markets and Financial Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glen91-1, December.
    2. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Césaire Meh, 2018. "A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 828-863, August.
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 69-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Bank Risk-Taking," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/09, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Allen,William A., 2014. "International Liquidity and the Financial Crisis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107420328, January.
    6. David L. Reifschneider, 2016. "Gauging the Ability of the FOMC to Respond to Future Recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-068, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Mortimer-Lee, Paul & Adrian Pabst, 2022. "Covid-19 and Productivity: Impact and Implications," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Occasional Papers 62, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. I. Giraldo & Turner P, 2022. "The dollar debt of companies in Latin America: the warning signs," Documentos de trabajo 20025, FLAR.
    3. jagjit Chadha & William Allen & Philip Turner, 2021. "Quantitative Tightening: Protecting Monetary Policy from Fiscal Encroachment," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Policy Papers 27, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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