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Estimating the Effects of Pronatal Policies on Residential Choice and Fertility

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  • Ryo Nakajima

    (Yokohama National University)

  • Ryuichi Tanaka

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the impacts of local-government-sponsored pronatal policies on fertility by exploiting information on the geographical variation in policies across municipalities in Japan. We develop an empirical model that accommodates both the location and fertility choices of households to take into account their self-selected migration across municipalities. We estimate the structural parameters using cross-sectional microdata on Japanese households in metropolitan areas. The results suggest that self-selection may generate substantial upward bias in the estimated impacts of pronatal policies on fertility. We also find that, after controlling for self-selection bias, some types of noncash benefit pronatal policies significantly increase the probability of births occurring in metropolitan households, although the magnitudes differ significantly by revenue and birth parity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryo Nakajima & Ryuichi Tanaka, 2012. "Estimating the Effects of Pronatal Policies on Residential Choice and Fertility," GRIPS Discussion Papers 12-06, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:12-06
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    Cited by:

    1. Asai, Yukiko & Kambayashi, Ryo & Yamaguchi, Shintaro, 2015. "Childcare availability, household structure, and maternal employment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 172-192.
    2. Fukai, Taiyo, 2017. "Childcare availability and fertility: Evidence from municipalities in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Sohyla Reshadat & Alireza Zangeneh & Shahram Saeidi & Neda Izadi & S. Ramin Ghasemi & Nader Rajabi-Gilan, 2018. "A Feasibility Study of Implementing the Policies on Increasing Birth Rate with an Emphasis on Socio-economic Status: A Case Study of Kermanshah Metropolis, Western Iran," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 619-636, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare

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